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Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a restocking spree during September and early October that drove dry bulk rates at more than 13 year highs, the market corrected with a sharp discharge of congestion at Chinese ports flooding the Pacific market with ballasters. At the same time, FFAs are pricing in further weakness in the months ahead and SnP buying interest has decreased, putting a halt to the appreciation trend that has been unfolding since the beginning of the year. It is notable, that traditionally towards the end of Q4 we are seeing a decrease in period rates in view of weaker Q1 - even though Q1/2021 proved counter seasonally positive for the sector- and a slowdown in asset values growth is normally tracking this trend, which could potentially create a buying window until current headwinds reverse.
There are several arguments why the market is likely to stabilize in 2022 and witness improvements. The dry bulk fleet growth factor is clearly supportive for the demand supply growth balance to remain in favor of demand. Nominal fleet growth is projected to be marginal over the next year on the back of low orderbook (~7% of the fleet) and increased shipyards’ deliveries slippage rate following the 2021 flurry in container vessels order.
On the demand side, the dry bulk market has benefitted of higher inflation that started from the rally in metal prices, followed by energy related commodities in Q42021. Inflation has been demand driven, triggered by the record high economic stimulus globally combined with supply bottlenecks and years of underinvestment in fossil fuel commodities. Coal continues to remain the bright spot for the rest of the year. The elimination of coal trade between China and Australia combined with a colder winter has supported coal ton-miles in 2021 and expected to continue to do so in the short term as Beijing is trying to boost supply domestically while the heating season amid a La Nina year is still ahead of us.
Looking further into 2022, our analysts expect high commodity prices in 2021 priced into the forward curves to trigger a supply response from miners and alleviate disruptions in industrial production stemming from current energy related commodity shortages. A gradual monetary tightening in the context of high inflation marks decelerating economic growth which is normal during the mid-cycle transition, however a slow down in growth does not mean negative growth. China’s decline in credit growth and infrastructure spending is a concern but likely to reverse in 2022 - economic growth is expected to reflate following the end of Winter Olympics in Q1 2022 with a recovery in crude steel production absorbing part of the iron ore stockpiles that are being built during the current quarter and into Q1 2022. Minor bulk growth is also expected to remain firm supported by the US infrastructure bill, as well as the global energy transition requiring minor bulk intensive technologies and along with the easing of steel and aluminum tariffs between the EU and the US will be beneficial for the Supramax and Handysize sector which have been better performers within this year based on ROIC. Finally, global grains demand is expected to remain underpinned amid bumper crops projected from major exporters for the next marketing year - particularly soybeans.
By Vasilis Moiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 13 October 21
FBX INDEX: THE IMPOSSIBILITY OF SHORT-TERM FORECASTING - LARS JENSEN
Will freight rates on Asia-Europe or the Transpacific reach 40.000 USD/FFE in the run-up prior to Chinese New Year 2022? Or will they start droppin ...
Wednesday, 13 October 21
CHINA FLOODS: COAL PRICE HITS FRESH HIGH AS MINES SHUT - BBC
The price of coal used in China’s power plants has surged to a new record high as another of the country’s key mining regions is hit by ...
Tuesday, 12 October 21
BUMA SIGNS CONDITIONAL AGREEMENT FOR AUSTRALIAN ASSET ACQUISITION
PT Tbk. announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama, through its newly incorporated Australian subsidiary, BUMA International Pty ...
Tuesday, 12 October 21
INDONESIA'S COAL-BASED POWER PLANTS ARE SUBJECT TO CARBON TAX NEXT YEAR, ELECTRICITY COSTS COULD RISE! - CNBC
The Indonesian government is planning plans to implement a carbon tax of IDR 30 per kilogram (kg) of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) or equivalent ...
Monday, 11 October 21
COAL ABANDONMENT IN POWER GENERATION PROMOTED GAS DEMAND GROWTH IN EUROPE - TOP MANAGER: TASS
Accelerated abandonment of coal in power generation and the overall recovery of economic activity facilitated gas demand growth in Europe and led t ...
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- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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