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Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a restocking spree during September and early October that drove dry bulk rates at more than 13 year highs, the market corrected with a sharp discharge of congestion at Chinese ports flooding the Pacific market with ballasters. At the same time, FFAs are pricing in further weakness in the months ahead and SnP buying interest has decreased, putting a halt to the appreciation trend that has been unfolding since the beginning of the year. It is notable, that traditionally towards the end of Q4 we are seeing a decrease in period rates in view of weaker Q1 - even though Q1/2021 proved counter seasonally positive for the sector- and a slowdown in asset values growth is normally tracking this trend, which could potentially create a buying window until current headwinds reverse.
There are several arguments why the market is likely to stabilize in 2022 and witness improvements. The dry bulk fleet growth factor is clearly supportive for the demand supply growth balance to remain in favor of demand. Nominal fleet growth is projected to be marginal over the next year on the back of low orderbook (~7% of the fleet) and increased shipyards’ deliveries slippage rate following the 2021 flurry in container vessels order.
On the demand side, the dry bulk market has benefitted of higher inflation that started from the rally in metal prices, followed by energy related commodities in Q42021. Inflation has been demand driven, triggered by the record high economic stimulus globally combined with supply bottlenecks and years of underinvestment in fossil fuel commodities. Coal continues to remain the bright spot for the rest of the year. The elimination of coal trade between China and Australia combined with a colder winter has supported coal ton-miles in 2021 and expected to continue to do so in the short term as Beijing is trying to boost supply domestically while the heating season amid a La Nina year is still ahead of us.
Looking further into 2022, our analysts expect high commodity prices in 2021 priced into the forward curves to trigger a supply response from miners and alleviate disruptions in industrial production stemming from current energy related commodity shortages. A gradual monetary tightening in the context of high inflation marks decelerating economic growth which is normal during the mid-cycle transition, however a slow down in growth does not mean negative growth. China’s decline in credit growth and infrastructure spending is a concern but likely to reverse in 2022 - economic growth is expected to reflate following the end of Winter Olympics in Q1 2022 with a recovery in crude steel production absorbing part of the iron ore stockpiles that are being built during the current quarter and into Q1 2022. Minor bulk growth is also expected to remain firm supported by the US infrastructure bill, as well as the global energy transition requiring minor bulk intensive technologies and along with the easing of steel and aluminum tariffs between the EU and the US will be beneficial for the Supramax and Handysize sector which have been better performers within this year based on ROIC. Finally, global grains demand is expected to remain underpinned amid bumper crops projected from major exporters for the next marketing year - particularly soybeans.
By Vasilis Moiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 16 October 21
COAL IS 'KING' AS GAS PRICES SOAR, TOTAL CEO SAYS - AND IT’S BACKFIRING ON CLEANER ENERGY GOALS - CNBC
Surging natural gas prices have led to a jump in coal use, with plants in Europe and Asia firing back up as temperatures decline and the world grap ...
Saturday, 16 October 21
VIETNAM'S COAL-FIRED POWER MAY DOUBLE BY 2030 UNDER DRAFT ENERGY PLAN - REUTERS
Vietnam may double the amount of coal-fired electric generation it installs by 2030 under a draft power development plan submitted to the prime min ...
Friday, 15 October 21
AUSTRALIA'S WHITEHAVEN EXPECTS TO BE DEBT-FREE NEXT YEAR AS COAL PRICES SOAR - REUTERS
Australia’s Whitehaven Coal WHC.AX said on Thursday it expects to be debt-free by early 2022, as thermal coal prices surge to record highs on ...
Friday, 15 October 21
WINTER CHILL KEEPS CHINA'S COAL PRICES HIGH, POWER CRUNCH STOKES INFLATION - REUTERS
China coal prices held near record highs on Thursday as cold weather swept into the country’s north and power plants stocked up on the fuel t ...
Friday, 15 October 21
GLOBAL STEEL DEMAND GROWTH DOWNGRADED FOR 2021 DUE TO CHINA - WORLD STEEL ASSOCIATION
The World Steel Association (worldsteel) today released an update of its Short Range Outlook (SRO) for 2021 and 2022. worldsteel forecasts that ste ...
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- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
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