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Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a restocking spree during September and early October that drove dry bulk rates at more than 13 year highs, the market corrected with a sharp discharge of congestion at Chinese ports flooding the Pacific market with ballasters. At the same time, FFAs are pricing in further weakness in the months ahead and SnP buying interest has decreased, putting a halt to the appreciation trend that has been unfolding since the beginning of the year. It is notable, that traditionally towards the end of Q4 we are seeing a decrease in period rates in view of weaker Q1 - even though Q1/2021 proved counter seasonally positive for the sector- and a slowdown in asset values growth is normally tracking this trend, which could potentially create a buying window until current headwinds reverse.
There are several arguments why the market is likely to stabilize in 2022 and witness improvements. The dry bulk fleet growth factor is clearly supportive for the demand supply growth balance to remain in favor of demand. Nominal fleet growth is projected to be marginal over the next year on the back of low orderbook (~7% of the fleet) and increased shipyards’ deliveries slippage rate following the 2021 flurry in container vessels order.
On the demand side, the dry bulk market has benefitted of higher inflation that started from the rally in metal prices, followed by energy related commodities in Q42021. Inflation has been demand driven, triggered by the record high economic stimulus globally combined with supply bottlenecks and years of underinvestment in fossil fuel commodities. Coal continues to remain the bright spot for the rest of the year. The elimination of coal trade between China and Australia combined with a colder winter has supported coal ton-miles in 2021 and expected to continue to do so in the short term as Beijing is trying to boost supply domestically while the heating season amid a La Nina year is still ahead of us.
Looking further into 2022, our analysts expect high commodity prices in 2021 priced into the forward curves to trigger a supply response from miners and alleviate disruptions in industrial production stemming from current energy related commodity shortages. A gradual monetary tightening in the context of high inflation marks decelerating economic growth which is normal during the mid-cycle transition, however a slow down in growth does not mean negative growth. China’s decline in credit growth and infrastructure spending is a concern but likely to reverse in 2022 - economic growth is expected to reflate following the end of Winter Olympics in Q1 2022 with a recovery in crude steel production absorbing part of the iron ore stockpiles that are being built during the current quarter and into Q1 2022. Minor bulk growth is also expected to remain firm supported by the US infrastructure bill, as well as the global energy transition requiring minor bulk intensive technologies and along with the easing of steel and aluminum tariffs between the EU and the US will be beneficial for the Supramax and Handysize sector which have been better performers within this year based on ROIC. Finally, global grains demand is expected to remain underpinned amid bumper crops projected from major exporters for the next marketing year - particularly soybeans.
By Vasilis Moiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 20 October 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
IMO 2020, Ballast Water Treatment regulations, Green Recycling, GHG emissions, EEXI, CII, ETS, Fit for 55, Carbon price/levy, the Poseidon Principl ...
Tuesday, 19 October 21
SPONGE IRON SECTOR MIGHT REPORT NEGATIVE GROWTH DUE TO COAL CRISIS: SIMA - PTI
The domestic sponge iron industry might report a negative growth in the ongoing December quarter “if the shortage of coal is allowed to conti ...
Tuesday, 19 October 21
COAL INDIA, THE FALL GUY FOR POWER CRISIS - INDIA EXPRESS
The post-Covid economic recovery has led to a major increase in the demand for power, both in India and globally. In India, coal-based power plants ...
Saturday, 16 October 21
SOLAR INSTALLATION SURGE PUTS INDIA ON TRACK TO CAP COAL-FIRED POWER AS EARLY AS 2024 - IEEFA
Recent increase in solar power installations could push coal to peak sooner than expected
If India keeps installing solar capacity a ...
Saturday, 16 October 21
DESPITE HIGHER COAL PRICES, U.S. COAL RECOVERY LOOKS WEAK BY MOST MEASURES - IEEFA
U.S. coal sector is locked into a long-term sectoral decline
Coal prices have surged to the highest level in years in the U.S., and have soare ...
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- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
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