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Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a restocking spree during September and early October that drove dry bulk rates at more than 13 year highs, the market corrected with a sharp discharge of congestion at Chinese ports flooding the Pacific market with ballasters. At the same time, FFAs are pricing in further weakness in the months ahead and SnP buying interest has decreased, putting a halt to the appreciation trend that has been unfolding since the beginning of the year. It is notable, that traditionally towards the end of Q4 we are seeing a decrease in period rates in view of weaker Q1 - even though Q1/2021 proved counter seasonally positive for the sector- and a slowdown in asset values growth is normally tracking this trend, which could potentially create a buying window until current headwinds reverse.
There are several arguments why the market is likely to stabilize in 2022 and witness improvements. The dry bulk fleet growth factor is clearly supportive for the demand supply growth balance to remain in favor of demand. Nominal fleet growth is projected to be marginal over the next year on the back of low orderbook (~7% of the fleet) and increased shipyards’ deliveries slippage rate following the 2021 flurry in container vessels order.
On the demand side, the dry bulk market has benefitted of higher inflation that started from the rally in metal prices, followed by energy related commodities in Q42021. Inflation has been demand driven, triggered by the record high economic stimulus globally combined with supply bottlenecks and years of underinvestment in fossil fuel commodities. Coal continues to remain the bright spot for the rest of the year. The elimination of coal trade between China and Australia combined with a colder winter has supported coal ton-miles in 2021 and expected to continue to do so in the short term as Beijing is trying to boost supply domestically while the heating season amid a La Nina year is still ahead of us.
Looking further into 2022, our analysts expect high commodity prices in 2021 priced into the forward curves to trigger a supply response from miners and alleviate disruptions in industrial production stemming from current energy related commodity shortages. A gradual monetary tightening in the context of high inflation marks decelerating economic growth which is normal during the mid-cycle transition, however a slow down in growth does not mean negative growth. China’s decline in credit growth and infrastructure spending is a concern but likely to reverse in 2022 - economic growth is expected to reflate following the end of Winter Olympics in Q1 2022 with a recovery in crude steel production absorbing part of the iron ore stockpiles that are being built during the current quarter and into Q1 2022. Minor bulk growth is also expected to remain firm supported by the US infrastructure bill, as well as the global energy transition requiring minor bulk intensive technologies and along with the easing of steel and aluminum tariffs between the EU and the US will be beneficial for the Supramax and Handysize sector which have been better performers within this year based on ROIC. Finally, global grains demand is expected to remain underpinned amid bumper crops projected from major exporters for the next marketing year - particularly soybeans.
By Vasilis Moiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 09 October 21
CHINA POWER CUTS: COAL MINERS ORDERED TO BOOST OUTPUT, SAY REPORTS - BBC
Beijing has reportedly ordered China’s coal mines to boost output as an energy shortage across the country has seen millions of homes and bus ...
Friday, 08 October 21
SEPTEMBER CRUDE OIL TANKER DEMOLISHING HITS 39-MONTHS HIGH AT 1.9M DWT - PETER SAND
Has the lid finally come off for crude oil tanker demolition in 2021? If judged by the 1.9m DWT of capacity that was removed in September, the answ ...
Friday, 08 October 21
COAL SHORTAGE MAY LEAD TO RISE IN STEEL PRICES IN COMING MONTHS: JSPL MD - PTI
Steel prices are expected to increase in the coming months as companies are buying coal at three times the rates a month ago, said a top industry e ...
Wednesday, 06 October 21
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE: ANOTHER MONTH, ANOTHER RALLY
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference in a steep climb for most of second and third quarters of 2021 as it reached a pinnacle of $161.63 Oc ...
Wednesday, 06 October 21
EUROPEAN COAL FUTURES CLIMB TO 13-YEAR PEAK - REUTERS
European coal futures rose to a 13-year high and physical thermal coal prices were at record highs as rallying gas prices and strong Asian demand f ...
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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