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Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a restocking spree during September and early October that drove dry bulk rates at more than 13 year highs, the market corrected with a sharp discharge of congestion at Chinese ports flooding the Pacific market with ballasters. At the same time, FFAs are pricing in further weakness in the months ahead and SnP buying interest has decreased, putting a halt to the appreciation trend that has been unfolding since the beginning of the year. It is notable, that traditionally towards the end of Q4 we are seeing a decrease in period rates in view of weaker Q1 - even though Q1/2021 proved counter seasonally positive for the sector- and a slowdown in asset values growth is normally tracking this trend, which could potentially create a buying window until current headwinds reverse.
There are several arguments why the market is likely to stabilize in 2022 and witness improvements. The dry bulk fleet growth factor is clearly supportive for the demand supply growth balance to remain in favor of demand. Nominal fleet growth is projected to be marginal over the next year on the back of low orderbook (~7% of the fleet) and increased shipyards’ deliveries slippage rate following the 2021 flurry in container vessels order.
On the demand side, the dry bulk market has benefitted of higher inflation that started from the rally in metal prices, followed by energy related commodities in Q42021. Inflation has been demand driven, triggered by the record high economic stimulus globally combined with supply bottlenecks and years of underinvestment in fossil fuel commodities. Coal continues to remain the bright spot for the rest of the year. The elimination of coal trade between China and Australia combined with a colder winter has supported coal ton-miles in 2021 and expected to continue to do so in the short term as Beijing is trying to boost supply domestically while the heating season amid a La Nina year is still ahead of us.
Looking further into 2022, our analysts expect high commodity prices in 2021 priced into the forward curves to trigger a supply response from miners and alleviate disruptions in industrial production stemming from current energy related commodity shortages. A gradual monetary tightening in the context of high inflation marks decelerating economic growth which is normal during the mid-cycle transition, however a slow down in growth does not mean negative growth. China’s decline in credit growth and infrastructure spending is a concern but likely to reverse in 2022 - economic growth is expected to reflate following the end of Winter Olympics in Q1 2022 with a recovery in crude steel production absorbing part of the iron ore stockpiles that are being built during the current quarter and into Q1 2022. Minor bulk growth is also expected to remain firm supported by the US infrastructure bill, as well as the global energy transition requiring minor bulk intensive technologies and along with the easing of steel and aluminum tariffs between the EU and the US will be beneficial for the Supramax and Handysize sector which have been better performers within this year based on ROIC. Finally, global grains demand is expected to remain underpinned amid bumper crops projected from major exporters for the next marketing year - particularly soybeans.
By Vasilis Moiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 22 October 21
HARD COAL REMAINS AN IMPORTANT FACTOR FOR SECURITY OF SUPPLY - COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION, GERMANY
- Hard coal remains an important factor for security of supply
- Increase of around 35% in hard-coal-fired power generation in the first three ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
CHINA'S COAL SHORTAGE TO EASE IN COMING MONTHS, INDUSTRY BODY SAYS - REUTERS
China’s coal shortage will likely ease in coming months, with domestic production and imports already showing signs of picking up, a coal ind ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
CHINA'S RAW COAL OUTPUT DROPS IN SEPTEMBER - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output dropped 0.9 percent year on year to 330 million tonnes last month, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
OVER-RELIANCE ON COAL IN OUR POWER MIX HURTING INDIA - LIVEMINT
In spite of the renewables push, coal still accounts for about 50% of India’s installed power capacity. That means a simultaneous demand and ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
CHINA COAL HITS RECORD HIGH AMID TIGHT SUPPLIES - REUTERS
China coal prices hit a record high on Tuesday buoyed by a widening power crunch and cold weather despite Beijing’s efforts to bolster supply ...
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
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