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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Friday, 26 November 21
CHINA FINDS COMPLIANCE PROBLEMS IN COAL PRICE INDEX PROBE - REUTERS
China’s state planner on Wednesday said it had discovered some “noncompliant” behaviour among coal price index providers as it an ...
Thursday, 25 November 21
SE ASIA POWER DEMAND TO RISE AS STATE SUPPORT MITIGATES COVID-19 IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
Electricity demand in south-east Asia is likely to increase in 2021, following slow growth or contraction in 2020, thanks to state support that has ...
Thursday, 25 November 21
FITCH RATINGS INCREASES MOST GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings has increased most metals and mining price assumptions, particularly those that benefit from increased longer-term demand due to glob ...
Thursday, 25 November 21
CHINA'S COAL PRICE DROPS IN MID-NOVEMBER AMID GOVERNMENT’S SWEEPING MEASURES - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s coal prices have dropped significantly in mid-November compared with the beginning of the month, with the price of coking coal and co ...
Wednesday, 24 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Inflation is the word that has dominated the meetings of foreign leaders and finance ministers in recent weeks, as rising energy costs, supply chai ...
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
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