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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Tuesday, 07 December 21
COAL FIRMS SEE SHARE PRICES SURGE MONDAY, AFTER GOVERNMENT READJUSTS CONTRACT PRICES - GLOBAL TIMES
Share prices of China’s coal enterprises jumped on Monday on the A-share market following a nationwide adjustment to annual thermal coal pric ...
Monday, 06 December 21
CHINA SETS 2022 ANNUAL THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 700 YUAN/T - MEDIA: REUTERS
China’s top economic planner has proposed to set annual thermal coal prices for 2022 at between 550 yuan and 850 yuan ($86-$133) per tonne, a ...
Thursday, 02 December 21
BUMI RECORDED US$ 666.18 MILLION AS REVENUE IN THE 3RD QUARTER, UP 13.31% YOY
PT Bumi Resources Tbk and its subsidiaries have recorded a surge in revenue in the third quarter of 2021. BUMI has recorded US$ 666.18 million as r ...
Thursday, 02 December 21
CHINA'S COAL CRUNCH IS OVER, BUT PRICES ARE STILL TOO HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal crisis has largely been resolved with gains in both production and stockpiles sufficient to ensure power supplies over winter.
...
Wednesday, 01 December 21
2022 OUTLOOK: INDONESIAN COAL MINING - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings has a neutral outlook on the Indonesian coal sector for 2022.
Earnings generation should slow down as selling pr ...
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
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