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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Wednesday, 24 November 21
WHY THIS MINING ANALYST IS UPBEAT ON THE IRON ORE PRICE FORECAST - MOTLEY FOOL
In many ways, 2021 can be called the year of the iron ore price. Much of the talk of the ASX town this year has revolved around this key economic m ...
Wednesday, 24 November 21
PRICE OF CHINA’S COAL FUTURE DROPS BY 60% AS NATIONWIDE DAILY OUTPUT REACHES OVER 12 MILLION TONS: NDRC - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s daily coal output has now stabilized after reaching over 12 million tons and the price of coal futures has declined to 800 yuan ($125 ...
Friday, 19 November 21
CHINA: COAL SUPPLIES TO STABILIZE FOR COMING COLD SEASON
China is capable of ensuring stable coal supplies this winter and next spring with the increase in coal production and the rising stockpiles at pow ...
Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a ...
Tuesday, 16 November 21
EARNINGS RECOVERY IN INDONESIAN COAL TO CONTINUE THROUGH 2021, BUT SLOW IN 2022 - FITCH RATINGS
The recovery in the operating and financial performance of Indonesian coal miners and coal contractors is likely to slow in 2022, but coal prices s ...
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- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
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