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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Wednesday, 01 December 21
SUPPLY OF COAL TO POWER PLANTS IN NOV MORE THAN CONSUMPTION: JOSHI - PTI
The supply of coal to power plants in November is more than the consumption, resulting in rise in stock of dry fuel at power plants, and this trend ...
Wednesday, 01 December 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Essentially, anyone involved in the shipping and commodity markets still struggle with commodity supply issues and skyrocketing prices in the conte ...
Tuesday, 30 November 21
CHINA'S TOP ECONOMIC PLANNER SUMMONS COAL PRODUCERS; LONG-TERM PRICING MECHANISM IS ADVISED - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s top economic planner the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said on Monday that they summoned coal producers for a hea ...
Tuesday, 30 November 21
CHINA'S COAL PRICES PLUNGE AFTER GOVT SIGNALS MORE PRICE REGULATION - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal futures dropped 5.6% on Monday after the state economic planner signaled further regulations for prices of the dirty pow ...
Friday, 26 November 21
AS COAL MARKET STABILIZES, CHINA STEPS UP NATURAL GAS SUPPLY TO MEET WINTER DEMAND - GLOBAL TIMES
The daily supply of natural gas in China has exceeded 1 billion cubic meters (bcm) since November began, up 11 percent year-on-year, data from stat ...
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Planning Commission, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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