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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Tuesday, 16 November 21
INDONESIA’S 2022 COAL USE FOR POWER GENERATION SET TO RISE 3% - REUTERS
Indonesia’s coal consumption for power generation is likely to rise by 3.1% next year compared to 2021, the head of the country’s state ...
Tuesday, 16 November 21
CHINA'S MONTHLY COAL OUTPUT RISES TO HIGHEST SINCE MARCH 2015 - REUTERS
China’s October coal output rose to the highest since at least March 2015, after Beijing approved a raft of coal mine expansions to tame reco ...
Friday, 12 November 21
ASIA COAL POWER PIPELINE TO SHRINK BY TWO THIRDS AFTER CHINA FINANCE CUT - REUTERS
Asia’s pipeline of proposed coal-fired power plants is expected to shrink from 65 gigawatts to 22 gigawatts following China’s pledge to ...
Friday, 12 November 21
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE TOPS $215 A TON; THE HIGHEST COAL PRICE IN HISTORY
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference in a steep climb for most of second half of 2021 as it reached a pinnacle of $215.01 in November 2021 ...
Thursday, 11 November 21
ASIA COAL POWER PIPELINE TO SHRINK BY TWO THIRDS AFTER CHINA FINANCE CUT - REUTERS
Asia’s pipeline of proposed coal-fired power plants is expected to shrink from 65 gigawatts to 22 gigawatts following China’s pledge to ...
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- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
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