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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Tuesday, 16 November 21
INDONESIA’S 2022 COAL USE FOR POWER GENERATION SET TO RISE 3% - REUTERS
Indonesia’s coal consumption for power generation is likely to rise by 3.1% next year compared to 2021, the head of the country’s state ...
Tuesday, 16 November 21
CHINA'S MONTHLY COAL OUTPUT RISES TO HIGHEST SINCE MARCH 2015 - REUTERS
China’s October coal output rose to the highest since at least March 2015, after Beijing approved a raft of coal mine expansions to tame reco ...
Friday, 12 November 21
ASIA COAL POWER PIPELINE TO SHRINK BY TWO THIRDS AFTER CHINA FINANCE CUT - REUTERS
Asia’s pipeline of proposed coal-fired power plants is expected to shrink from 65 gigawatts to 22 gigawatts following China’s pledge to ...
Friday, 12 November 21
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE TOPS $215 A TON; THE HIGHEST COAL PRICE IN HISTORY
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference in a steep climb for most of second half of 2021 as it reached a pinnacle of $215.01 in November 2021 ...
Thursday, 11 November 21
ASIA COAL POWER PIPELINE TO SHRINK BY TWO THIRDS AFTER CHINA FINANCE CUT - REUTERS
Asia’s pipeline of proposed coal-fired power plants is expected to shrink from 65 gigawatts to 22 gigawatts following China’s pledge to ...
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
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