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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Tuesday, 14 December 21
COAL LOCK-IN IN SOUTHEAST ASIA PRESENTS A CHALLENGE FOR THE ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK'S COAL RETIREMENT PLAN - IEEFA
In August, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) announced an ambitious plan to buy high emissions coal-fired power plants in Southeast Asia and retire ...
Saturday, 11 December 21
BUNKER BUYERS LOSE UP TO $5/MT FOR NOT COVERING ENOUGH SUPPLIERS - INTEGR8 FUELS
With the Brent price recently touching the $80 mark and before the Omicron variant concerns pushed it lower, bunker prices reached levels not seen ...
Tuesday, 07 December 21
SUPERCYCLE DEMAND: ARE WE THERE YET? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Taking young children on a long journey is fraught with challenges, not least the inevitable question a few minutes after leaving: are we there yet ...
Tuesday, 07 December 21
COAL WOULD REMAIN ENERGY LEADER FOR AT LEAST 15 YEARS - LIVEMINT
Coal India Ltd (CIL) has been in the eye of the storm after fuel stocks at coal-fuelled power plants depleted in October. Fuel stocks since are bei ...
Tuesday, 07 December 21
GLOBAL SHIPPING OUTLOOK TURNS STABLE FROM POSITIVE ON THE BACK OF PEAKING EARNINGS DURING 2021 - MOODY'S
The outlook for the global shipping industry is changed to stable from positive for the next 12 to 18 months due to demand slightly outstripping su ...
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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