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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Thursday, 23 December 21
COAL DEMAND TO PEAK IN INDIA BY 2030, WILL BACK UP RENEWABLES: NITI REPORT - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal will remain India’s mainstay energy source and the country will shape global demand this decade, two reports have said a month after the ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
INDONESIA’S 2022 COAL OUTPUT SEEN BETWEEN 637 MLN-664 MLN T- OFFICIAL - REUTERS
Indonesia’s 2022 coal output is estimated at between 637 million to 664 million tonnes based on production plans currently being finalised, s ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
VALE ANNOUNCES THE SALE OF ITS COAL ASSETS
Vale informs that, on this date, it has entered into a binding agreement with Vulcan to sell the Moatize coal mine and the Nacala Logistics Corrido ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
INDIA: CAPTIVE POWER PRODUCERS URGE GOVT TO ENSURE NORMAL COAL SUPPLIES - PTI
A captive power producers’ association has urged the government for 100 per cent normalisation of coal supply to captive power producers whil ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As an outstanding year for the dry bulk freight market comes to a close, so does a thriving year for the SnP market which can only be compared to 2 ...
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- PTC India Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
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