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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Wednesday, 05 January 22
CHINA COAL FUTURES SURGE ON SUPPLY WORRIES AMID INDONESIA EXPORT BAN - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal futures surged by as much as 7.8per cent to kick off 2022 on concerns of supply disruptions after Indonesia, its biggest ...
Wednesday, 05 January 22
INDONESIA WARNS COAL SUPPLY CRUNCH NOT OVER AS CHINA PRICES RALLY - REUTERS
Indonesia has warned that its coal supply situation remains critical, ahead of Wednesday’s (Jan 5) review of its export ban, unnerving global ...
Tuesday, 28 December 21
INDIA'S ADANI NEARS FIRST COAL SHIPMENT FROM SHUNNED AUSTRALIAN MINE - REUTERS
India’s Adani Group ADEL.NS is preparing to ship the first coal cargo from Australia’s most controversial mine, after battling a seven- ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
COAL TO STAY AS MAJOR SOURCE OF ENERGY IN FORESEEABLE FUTURE: JOSHI - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal will stay as a major source of energy in the foreseeable future as it is an affordable source of energy with substantial reserve, Parliament w ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
ANNUAL U.S. COAL-FIRED ELECTRICITY GENERATION WILL INCREASE FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE 2014 - EIA
From December 20 through December 30, Today in Energy will feature some of our favorite articles from 2021. Today’s article was originally pu ...
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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