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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Monday, 04 July 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SLIGHTLY DOWN IN JULY
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for July delivery drops 1.52 per cent month on month.
The Indonesian Coal Price Refere ...
Sunday, 03 July 22
CHINESE VICE PREMIER STRESSES CLEAN, EFFICIENT USE OF COAL - XINHUA
Chinese Vice Premier Han Zheng has stressed efforts to promote the clean and efficient use of coal, and pursue green, low-carbon and high-quality d ...
Sunday, 03 July 22
SOVEREIGN SECTOR OUTLOOK REVISED TO NEUTRAL ON UKRAINE WAR IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
The deterioration in global sovereign credit conditions this year relative to our expectations at end-2021 has caused Fitch Ratings to change its g ...
Saturday, 02 July 22
GLOBAL SEABORNE COAL EXPORTS IN 2021 INCREASED BY 4.4% Y-O-Y TO 1147 MLN TONNES - BANCHERO COSTA
In the full 12 months of 2021, global seaborne coal exports increased by +4.4% y-o-y to 1147 mln tonnes, from 1099 mln tonnes in 2020, according to ...
Friday, 01 July 22
INDIA'S TOP CEMENT MAKER PAYING FOR RUSSIAN COAL IN CHINESE YUAN - REUTERS
India’s biggest cement producer, UltraTech Cement ULTC.NS, is importing a cargo of Russian coal and paying using Chinese yuan, according to a ...
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
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