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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Thursday, 30 June 22
FINANCIAL GAINS SUPPORT COAL TRANSITION - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Support for the shift away from coal dependency continues to mount, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) calculating that the move would gene ...
Thursday, 30 June 22
WHY ARE LNG SHIPPING STOCKS RESILIENT? - DREWRY
LNG shipping stocks are proving resilient despite uncertainties about growth in global GDP, high inflation and the ongoing geopolitical crisis caus ...
Thursday, 30 June 22
SPOT AUSTRALIAN THERMAL COAL HAS SURGED, BUT CONTRACT PRICE IS KEY - REUTERS
The spot price of Australian thermal coal is higher than that of coking coal, an unprecedented situation that highlights just how the global market ...
Thursday, 30 June 22
SHANXI PROVINCE RAISES ANNUAL COAL OUTPUT TO 1.3 BILLION TONS TO ENSURE CHINA’S ENERGY SUPPLY - GLOBAL TIMES
North China’s Shanxi Province, a major coal-producing region, recently announced a move to increase its annual coal production output by 107 ...
Thursday, 30 June 22
DIVERGENCE BETWEEN HIGH- AND LOW-GRADE THERMAL COAL PRICES IN APAC TO NARROW - FITCH RATINGS
Prices between high- and low-grade thermal coal in Asia-Pacific (APAC) have diverged since late March 2022, but Fitch Ratings expects the gap to na ...
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- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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