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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Wednesday, 13 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Taking the previous market insight a step further, market sentiment remains bullish regarding the overall ROI of scrubbers, facing tailwinds from a ...
Friday, 08 July 22
AUSTRALIAN COAL PRICE BREAKS AGAIN LEVEL US$ 400/TON!, UP AROUND 4% - CNBC INDONESIA
Coal prices shot up again and crossed the level of US$ 400 per ton. On Thursday (7/7/2022) trading, the selling price of August contract closed at ...
Friday, 08 July 22
INDONESIA MULLS MORE FREQUENT SETTING OF CRUDE PALM OIL REFERENCE PRICE - REUTERS
Indonesia is considering setting its crude palm oil (CPO) export reference price every two weeks instead of monthly, a senior trade ministry offici ...
Friday, 08 July 22
BUNKER PRICES EXPECTED TO RECOVER LOST GROUND NEXT WEEK - SERGEY IVANOV, MABUX
Over the Week 27, the world bunker indices showed a sharp decline, primarily due to the fall in oil prices on July 05. The 380 HSFO index fell by 5 ...
Thursday, 07 July 22
NTPC MINES 61% MORE COAL AT 4.22 MN METRIC TONNES IN APRIL-JUNE: PTI
State-owned power giant NTPC on Tuesday said that its coal output grew by 61 per cent to Rs 42.40 lakh metric tonnes in April-June quarter from 26. ...
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
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- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
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- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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- Australian Coal Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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- Economic Council, Georgia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
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- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
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