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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Thursday, 07 July 22
COAL INDIA'S PRODUCTION SETS RECORD INCREASE OF 29% YOY AT 36 MT IN Q1FY23 - IIFL SECURITIES
Coal India Limited (CIL) has ended April-June quarter FY’23 capping a historic high of 29% yoy output growth, compared to same quarter FY&rsq ...
Wednesday, 06 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Following the 3rd Decarbonizing Shipping Forum, held in Hamburg on June 2022, there has been a meaningful resurgence of discussions within the ship ...
Tuesday, 05 July 22
WHY ARE VLSFO PRICES SO HIGH, ESPECIALLY IN SINGAPORE? - STEVE CHRISTY, INTEGR8 FUELS
Tightness in products still trumps talks of recession
Last month we wrote about the fears of recession versus the tightness in product markets ...
Tuesday, 05 July 22
ADANI ENTERPRISES LOWEST BIDDER IN COAL INDIA'S IMPORT TENDER: REPORT - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal India Ltd floated its first import tender on behalf of power companies, where Adani Enterprises Ltd came out to be the lowest bidder, a report ...
Tuesday, 05 July 22
CHINA POLICY KEY FOR IRON ORE OUTLOOK - ING
China’s covid lockdowns and recessionary risks hit iron ore
Iron ore prices have fallen significantly from their year-to-date high of US$ ...
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- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
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