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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Thursday, 30 June 22
INVESTMENT IN GLOBAL COAL SUPPLY CHAIN TO HIT $115 BN IN 2022, LED BY CHINA AND INDIA - BUSINESS LINE
At over $80 billion, China and India are anticipated to make up the bulk of global coal investment in 2022, says IEA.
The investment ...
Wednesday, 29 June 22
LNG MARKET REMAINS TIGHT - INTERMODAL
LNG market remains tight currently, mainly driven by the US LNG outage from the recent fire in Freeport LNG terminal together with the recent fall ...
Wednesday, 29 June 22
CHINA'S NEW PLAN FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT FOCUSES ON CONSUMPTION - FITCH RATINGS
China’s focus on consumption penetration for renewable energy development in its recently released 14th five-year plan – 2021 to 2025 & ...
Wednesday, 29 June 22
APAC CORPORATE SECTOR OUTLOOKS SHIFT AMID GLOBAL SHOCKS - FITCH RATINGS’
Fitch Ratings’ mid-2022 corporate sector outlook review revealed that the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region saw the largest number of sector outlook ...
Thursday, 16 June 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Picking up from my last insight in March, on the early days of the invasion, it's worth pointing out the way that the fast-paced working enviro ...
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- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
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