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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Tuesday, 19 July 22
SEEING RED? - WOOD MACKENZIE
What a Republican mid-term victory could mean for US energy and climate policy
According to current polling the Republican Party has ...
Thursday, 14 July 22
INDIA'S COAL IMPORTS HIT RECORD HIGH IN JUNE - REUTERS
India's coal imports hit a record high in June despite high global prices, data from three trade sources and Refinitiv ship tracking showed, as ...
Thursday, 14 July 22
CHINA'S JUNE COAL IMPORTS SLUMP AS TRADERS SHUN EXPENSIVE OVERSEAS CARGOES - REUTERS
China’s coal imports fell 33% in June from a year ago, with traders turning down expensive overseas cargoes in favor of domestic ones with ca ...
Wednesday, 13 July 22
KOWEPO TO IMPORT 2.79 MILLION TONS OF LOW TO MEDIUM COAL
COALspot.com: Korea Western Power Co., Ltd. (KOWEPO) has issued an International tender for Total 1360k MT of Min.4400 kcal/kg NCV coal and Total 1 ...
Wednesday, 13 July 22
HAVE MINERS MISSED THE BOAT TO INVEST AND GET AHEAD OF THE ENERGY TRANSITION? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Miners are in rude health, benefiting from economic stimuli, the post-pandemic recovery and associated supply constraints. Initially the Ukraine wa ...
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- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The University of Queensland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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