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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Tuesday, 19 July 22
DRY BULK MARKET: CAPESIZE MARKET FIRMS THIS WEEK - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
Firmer sentiment across both basins pushed the Capesize 5TC route average above the $20,000 threshold this week, closing at $24,209. A ...
Tuesday, 19 July 22
WHY SHIPPING MIGHT BE ABOUT TO GET A LITTLE BIT SLOWER - WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM
If shipping is the beating heart of global trade, its pulse is about to get slower.
Faced with uncertainty about which fuels to use in the long ...
Tuesday, 19 July 22
GERMANY'S INCREASED COAL, OIL USE WILL BE TEMPORARY, SCHOLZ SAYS - CNBC
Chancellor Olaf Scholz says Germany’s decision to reactivate coal and oil-fired power plants to relieve energy shortages because of the war i ...
Tuesday, 19 July 22
INDONESIA REMOVES PALM OIL EXPORT LEVY UNTIL AUG. 31 - REUTERS
Indonesia has scrapped its export levy for all palm oil products until Aug. 31 in a fresh attempt to boost exports and ease high inventories, finan ...
Tuesday, 19 July 22
CHINA'S JUNE DAILY COAL OUTPUT JUMPS ON PEAK SUMMER DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output in June rose 6.6 per cent from a month earlier as miners cranked up output ahead of peak summer temperatures, when ...
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The University of Queensland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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