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Wednesday, 03 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 November is here and soon the all time seasonal favorite “all I want or Christmas is you” by Mariah Carey will be played in radio stations around the world repeatedly. Now the shipping question is, “will the tanker segment get what it wants this Christmas”?
For gas, dry and container Christmas has arrived very early in 2021 with earnings reaching levels not seen for more than a decade putting an overdue smile on ship owners faces.
So has the time come eventually for the tankers as well? There have been a few false alarms this year. One in early 2021 and one just before the summer. The activity on the SnP was mainly for Aframax and VLCCs and was purely driven by speculation or otherwise put “counter-cyclical” investment behavior, while the actual freight market remained subdued. That resulted into tanker asset values increasing especially on the Aframax size. And shortly after that we saw the same ships sold less than a month ago to be again for sale in an asset play attempt to flip them for a short profit.
We think that now is the time to buy. Compared to the dry bulk and container markets where the upcycle is mainly driven by demand, tankers on the other hand are mainly oil and products supply depended. As product tanker earnings seem to be taking the lead in the tankers recovery and hopefully soon the crude tankers will follow with late Q4 being the inflection point for an upward market reversal. The oil products destocking cycle is expected to come to an end during Q4, when winter restocking demand for middle distillates products will be at its peak, and refineries are expected to accelerate their runs to cover the energy deficit. Refineries are set to benefit from the increase in diesel and jet fuel prices a trend that should unfold through Q1 2022. The market seems well positioned for rising heating oil/ diesel consumption in the Atlantic, as well as jet fuel, and thus East to West middle distillates trade is expected to pick up. Naphtha trade is also expected to pick up in the short term, as naphtha has become cheaper than propane as a feedstock in the petrochemical industry benefiting the West/Med to East naphtha trade. Gasoline exports from Europe to the U.S. are also expected to rise on open arbitrage North West Europe- USAC on the forward curve and low inventories in the US. Gasoline flows from East of Suez into West Africa are expected to decline by the end of the year, as Asia is seeking to keep supplies to serve domestic demand, which is likely to lead to an increase in demand for European gasoline supplies from West Africa and US East Coast simultaneously.
Based on what we see and anticipate as stated above the increase of product prices and the need to refill the inventories will be key to the extent of the market recovery over the next year.
This could be a good timing to buy product carriers. We are starting to see increased SnP activity mainly for 12-14 year old MRs and 10 to 5 year old LR2s. Strange mix but this is where the majority of buyers are concentrating. MR1s are not yet of interest and on the LR1s buyers are reacting mostly to units less than 10 years old but there are not a lot for sale, at least not yet. Values have remained stable over the past two months but we do not expect them to stay put. It’s a small window to invest now where the market is still in favor of the buyers.
By Timos Papadimitriou,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 01 September 21
KOMIPO TO BUY 1.56 MILLION TONS OF 5600 NAR COAL OF AUSTRALIA OR SOUTH AFRICAN ORIGIN FOR 2022 - 2024
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO) has issued an international tender for total 1,560,000 MT of Bituminous Coal to be used a ...
Wednesday, 01 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the summer season is coming to an end, the dry bulk market continues to rally. The confidence that the outstanding freight market performance ha ...
Monday, 30 August 21
68% OF U.S. COAL FLEET RETIREMENTS SINCE 2011 WERE PLANTS FUELED BY BITUMINOUS COAL - EIA
In 2011, the United States had 317.6 gigawatts (GW) of coal-fired electric generation capacity. About 88.7 GW of that capacity was retired in the d ...
Friday, 27 August 21
ALL YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT COAL'S MASSIVE RALLY AND NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK - CNBCTV18
Australia’s thermal coal at Newcastle Port, the benchmark for the vast Asian market, has surged over 100 percent this year to trade above $16 ...
Friday, 27 August 21
THE ECONOMICS OF INDONESIA’S DIESEL POWER PLANT TO GAS CONVERSION PLAN ARE PROBLEMATIC - IEEFA
Deploying new small-scale LNG is an uphill battle for PGN
Indonesian gas is currently in a precarious position, where the government needs to ...
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Planning Commission, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
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