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Wednesday, 03 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 November is here and soon the all time seasonal favorite “all I want or Christmas is you” by Mariah Carey will be played in radio stations around the world repeatedly. Now the shipping question is, “will the tanker segment get what it wants this Christmas”?
For gas, dry and container Christmas has arrived very early in 2021 with earnings reaching levels not seen for more than a decade putting an overdue smile on ship owners faces.
So has the time come eventually for the tankers as well? There have been a few false alarms this year. One in early 2021 and one just before the summer. The activity on the SnP was mainly for Aframax and VLCCs and was purely driven by speculation or otherwise put “counter-cyclical” investment behavior, while the actual freight market remained subdued. That resulted into tanker asset values increasing especially on the Aframax size. And shortly after that we saw the same ships sold less than a month ago to be again for sale in an asset play attempt to flip them for a short profit.
We think that now is the time to buy. Compared to the dry bulk and container markets where the upcycle is mainly driven by demand, tankers on the other hand are mainly oil and products supply depended. As product tanker earnings seem to be taking the lead in the tankers recovery and hopefully soon the crude tankers will follow with late Q4 being the inflection point for an upward market reversal. The oil products destocking cycle is expected to come to an end during Q4, when winter restocking demand for middle distillates products will be at its peak, and refineries are expected to accelerate their runs to cover the energy deficit. Refineries are set to benefit from the increase in diesel and jet fuel prices a trend that should unfold through Q1 2022. The market seems well positioned for rising heating oil/ diesel consumption in the Atlantic, as well as jet fuel, and thus East to West middle distillates trade is expected to pick up. Naphtha trade is also expected to pick up in the short term, as naphtha has become cheaper than propane as a feedstock in the petrochemical industry benefiting the West/Med to East naphtha trade. Gasoline exports from Europe to the U.S. are also expected to rise on open arbitrage North West Europe- USAC on the forward curve and low inventories in the US. Gasoline flows from East of Suez into West Africa are expected to decline by the end of the year, as Asia is seeking to keep supplies to serve domestic demand, which is likely to lead to an increase in demand for European gasoline supplies from West Africa and US East Coast simultaneously.
Based on what we see and anticipate as stated above the increase of product prices and the need to refill the inventories will be key to the extent of the market recovery over the next year.
This could be a good timing to buy product carriers. We are starting to see increased SnP activity mainly for 12-14 year old MRs and 10 to 5 year old LR2s. Strange mix but this is where the majority of buyers are concentrating. MR1s are not yet of interest and on the LR1s buyers are reacting mostly to units less than 10 years old but there are not a lot for sale, at least not yet. Values have remained stable over the past two months but we do not expect them to stay put. It’s a small window to invest now where the market is still in favor of the buyers.
By Timos Papadimitriou,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 26 August 21
INDIA IMPORTED 17.06 MLN TONNES OF LPG IN 2020; UP 11.5% Y-O-Y
Global LPG trade remained fairly positive in 2020, despite the global economic impact from COVID-19, and surged strongly in the first half of 2021. ...
Thursday, 26 August 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
24th of August 2021, the Baltic Dry Index reached 4,201, a YTD high and the highest since May 2010.
Cape 5TC daily average @ 51,472
...
Tuesday, 24 August 21
COAL PRICE RALLY TO PRESSURE CHINESE POWER GENCOS’ MARGINS FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects the pressure on Chinese power generation companies’ (gencos) profit from the recent coal price surge to weaken their cr ...
Tuesday, 24 August 21
TIGHT POWER SUPPLY IN CHINA AMID STRONG DEMAND, HIGH COAL PRICES - FITCH RATINGS
China experienced tight power supply in 1H21 on stronger than expected power demand as economic activity continued to recover, Fitch Ratings says i ...
Monday, 23 August 21
CHINESE COAL PRODUCTION RISES 4.9 PCT IN 1ST 7 MONTHS OF 2021 - NBS
Official figures demonstrated that the Chinese raw coal production surged 4.9 percent annually to 2.26 billion tonnes in the January-July period of ...
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- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
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