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Wednesday, 03 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 November is here and soon the all time seasonal favorite “all I want or Christmas is you” by Mariah Carey will be played in radio stations around the world repeatedly. Now the shipping question is, “will the tanker segment get what it wants this Christmas”?
For gas, dry and container Christmas has arrived very early in 2021 with earnings reaching levels not seen for more than a decade putting an overdue smile on ship owners faces.
So has the time come eventually for the tankers as well? There have been a few false alarms this year. One in early 2021 and one just before the summer. The activity on the SnP was mainly for Aframax and VLCCs and was purely driven by speculation or otherwise put “counter-cyclical” investment behavior, while the actual freight market remained subdued. That resulted into tanker asset values increasing especially on the Aframax size. And shortly after that we saw the same ships sold less than a month ago to be again for sale in an asset play attempt to flip them for a short profit.
We think that now is the time to buy. Compared to the dry bulk and container markets where the upcycle is mainly driven by demand, tankers on the other hand are mainly oil and products supply depended. As product tanker earnings seem to be taking the lead in the tankers recovery and hopefully soon the crude tankers will follow with late Q4 being the inflection point for an upward market reversal. The oil products destocking cycle is expected to come to an end during Q4, when winter restocking demand for middle distillates products will be at its peak, and refineries are expected to accelerate their runs to cover the energy deficit. Refineries are set to benefit from the increase in diesel and jet fuel prices a trend that should unfold through Q1 2022. The market seems well positioned for rising heating oil/ diesel consumption in the Atlantic, as well as jet fuel, and thus East to West middle distillates trade is expected to pick up. Naphtha trade is also expected to pick up in the short term, as naphtha has become cheaper than propane as a feedstock in the petrochemical industry benefiting the West/Med to East naphtha trade. Gasoline exports from Europe to the U.S. are also expected to rise on open arbitrage North West Europe- USAC on the forward curve and low inventories in the US. Gasoline flows from East of Suez into West Africa are expected to decline by the end of the year, as Asia is seeking to keep supplies to serve domestic demand, which is likely to lead to an increase in demand for European gasoline supplies from West Africa and US East Coast simultaneously.
Based on what we see and anticipate as stated above the increase of product prices and the need to refill the inventories will be key to the extent of the market recovery over the next year.
This could be a good timing to buy product carriers. We are starting to see increased SnP activity mainly for 12-14 year old MRs and 10 to 5 year old LR2s. Strange mix but this is where the majority of buyers are concentrating. MR1s are not yet of interest and on the LR1s buyers are reacting mostly to units less than 10 years old but there are not a lot for sale, at least not yet. Values have remained stable over the past two months but we do not expect them to stay put. It’s a small window to invest now where the market is still in favor of the buyers.
By Timos Papadimitriou,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of col ...
Tuesday, 21 September 21
CHINESE COAL IMPORTS FROM AUSTRALIA DROP 98.6% AS RESTRICTIONS BITE - BIMCO
In the first seven months of the year Chinese coal imports from Australia have totalled just 780,000 tonnes as Chinese restrictions on Australian c ...
Tuesday, 21 September 21
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT RESUMES GROWTH IN AUGUST - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output rose 0.8 percent year on year to 340 million tonnes last month, official data showed.
The growth rate ...
Wednesday, 15 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Following the oil price sell off during most of August, partly triggered by oil demand fears amid the delta COVID variant, oil prices have resumed ...
Saturday, 11 September 21
CIL STEPS UP SUPPLY COAL TO POWER SECTOR; PER-DAY AVERAGE 20 PC HIGHER THAN LAST YEAR - PTI
State-owned CIL on Friday said it has stepped up the supply of coal to the power sector in the first eight days of the current month, with an avera ...
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- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
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