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Wednesday, 03 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 November is here and soon the all time seasonal favorite “all I want or Christmas is you” by Mariah Carey will be played in radio stations around the world repeatedly. Now the shipping question is, “will the tanker segment get what it wants this Christmas”?
For gas, dry and container Christmas has arrived very early in 2021 with earnings reaching levels not seen for more than a decade putting an overdue smile on ship owners faces.
So has the time come eventually for the tankers as well? There have been a few false alarms this year. One in early 2021 and one just before the summer. The activity on the SnP was mainly for Aframax and VLCCs and was purely driven by speculation or otherwise put “counter-cyclical” investment behavior, while the actual freight market remained subdued. That resulted into tanker asset values increasing especially on the Aframax size. And shortly after that we saw the same ships sold less than a month ago to be again for sale in an asset play attempt to flip them for a short profit.
We think that now is the time to buy. Compared to the dry bulk and container markets where the upcycle is mainly driven by demand, tankers on the other hand are mainly oil and products supply depended. As product tanker earnings seem to be taking the lead in the tankers recovery and hopefully soon the crude tankers will follow with late Q4 being the inflection point for an upward market reversal. The oil products destocking cycle is expected to come to an end during Q4, when winter restocking demand for middle distillates products will be at its peak, and refineries are expected to accelerate their runs to cover the energy deficit. Refineries are set to benefit from the increase in diesel and jet fuel prices a trend that should unfold through Q1 2022. The market seems well positioned for rising heating oil/ diesel consumption in the Atlantic, as well as jet fuel, and thus East to West middle distillates trade is expected to pick up. Naphtha trade is also expected to pick up in the short term, as naphtha has become cheaper than propane as a feedstock in the petrochemical industry benefiting the West/Med to East naphtha trade. Gasoline exports from Europe to the U.S. are also expected to rise on open arbitrage North West Europe- USAC on the forward curve and low inventories in the US. Gasoline flows from East of Suez into West Africa are expected to decline by the end of the year, as Asia is seeking to keep supplies to serve domestic demand, which is likely to lead to an increase in demand for European gasoline supplies from West Africa and US East Coast simultaneously.
Based on what we see and anticipate as stated above the increase of product prices and the need to refill the inventories will be key to the extent of the market recovery over the next year.
This could be a good timing to buy product carriers. We are starting to see increased SnP activity mainly for 12-14 year old MRs and 10 to 5 year old LR2s. Strange mix but this is where the majority of buyers are concentrating. MR1s are not yet of interest and on the LR1s buyers are reacting mostly to units less than 10 years old but there are not a lot for sale, at least not yet. Values have remained stable over the past two months but we do not expect them to stay put. It’s a small window to invest now where the market is still in favor of the buyers.
By Timos Papadimitriou,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 11 September 21
RECORD CHINESE COAL FUTURES SIGNAL NEED TO BOOST OUTPUT - REUTERS
China’s coal prices have climbed to a record high, signaling the need for more production in the short term, even as the government tries to ...
Saturday, 11 September 21
IN 2022, EIA EXPECTS U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TO INCREASE BY 47 MMST TO 648 MMST
U.S. Coal production accordng to EIA's forecast, totals 601 million short tons (MMst) in 2021, 66 MMst more than in 2020, EIA's Short-Term ...
Wednesday, 08 September 21
FITCH RATINGS RAISES THERMAL COAL PRICE ASSUMPTIONS ON TIGHT SUPPLY
Fitch Ratings has increased all its Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg price assumptions and short- and medium-term Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg price assumptions ...
Wednesday, 08 September 21
COAL IS STILL KING; INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE ABOVE $150 FOR FIRST TIME IN HISTORY
COALspot.com: The Indonesian Coal Price Reference rose dramatically from US$ 127.05 in February 2011, to a peak of US$ 150.03 in September 2021, be ...
Wednesday, 08 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Last August was extremely hot in the dry bulk market with rates rising at levels that we have years to witness. The dry bulk index exceeded the 4,0 ...
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- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
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- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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