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Wednesday, 03 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 November is here and soon the all time seasonal favorite “all I want or Christmas is you” by Mariah Carey will be played in radio stations around the world repeatedly. Now the shipping question is, “will the tanker segment get what it wants this Christmas”?
For gas, dry and container Christmas has arrived very early in 2021 with earnings reaching levels not seen for more than a decade putting an overdue smile on ship owners faces.
So has the time come eventually for the tankers as well? There have been a few false alarms this year. One in early 2021 and one just before the summer. The activity on the SnP was mainly for Aframax and VLCCs and was purely driven by speculation or otherwise put “counter-cyclical” investment behavior, while the actual freight market remained subdued. That resulted into tanker asset values increasing especially on the Aframax size. And shortly after that we saw the same ships sold less than a month ago to be again for sale in an asset play attempt to flip them for a short profit.
We think that now is the time to buy. Compared to the dry bulk and container markets where the upcycle is mainly driven by demand, tankers on the other hand are mainly oil and products supply depended. As product tanker earnings seem to be taking the lead in the tankers recovery and hopefully soon the crude tankers will follow with late Q4 being the inflection point for an upward market reversal. The oil products destocking cycle is expected to come to an end during Q4, when winter restocking demand for middle distillates products will be at its peak, and refineries are expected to accelerate their runs to cover the energy deficit. Refineries are set to benefit from the increase in diesel and jet fuel prices a trend that should unfold through Q1 2022. The market seems well positioned for rising heating oil/ diesel consumption in the Atlantic, as well as jet fuel, and thus East to West middle distillates trade is expected to pick up. Naphtha trade is also expected to pick up in the short term, as naphtha has become cheaper than propane as a feedstock in the petrochemical industry benefiting the West/Med to East naphtha trade. Gasoline exports from Europe to the U.S. are also expected to rise on open arbitrage North West Europe- USAC on the forward curve and low inventories in the US. Gasoline flows from East of Suez into West Africa are expected to decline by the end of the year, as Asia is seeking to keep supplies to serve domestic demand, which is likely to lead to an increase in demand for European gasoline supplies from West Africa and US East Coast simultaneously.
Based on what we see and anticipate as stated above the increase of product prices and the need to refill the inventories will be key to the extent of the market recovery over the next year.
This could be a good timing to buy product carriers. We are starting to see increased SnP activity mainly for 12-14 year old MRs and 10 to 5 year old LR2s. Strange mix but this is where the majority of buyers are concentrating. MR1s are not yet of interest and on the LR1s buyers are reacting mostly to units less than 10 years old but there are not a lot for sale, at least not yet. Values have remained stable over the past two months but we do not expect them to stay put. It’s a small window to invest now where the market is still in favor of the buyers.
By Timos Papadimitriou,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 20 August 21
ARE WE LOOKING AT THE NEXT DRY BULK SUPER CYCLE? IS IT EVEN A CYCLE? - BIMCO
Throughout the first half of the year, talk of a new dry bulk super cycle has been on many lips as commodity prices have soared to multi-year highs ...
Friday, 20 August 21
BIMCO'S SHIPPING NUMBER OF THE WEEK: CHINESE IRON ORE IMPORTS FALL TO 14-MONTH LOW IN JULY - PETER SAND
Chinese iron ore imports fell to 88.5 million tonnes in July, the lowest level since May 2020. The fall in July means that accumulated imports are ...
Friday, 20 August 21
SOARING DEMAND FOR THE WORLD’S LEAST-LIKED COMMODITY SEES THERMAL COAL PRICES JUMP 106% THIS YEAR - CNBC
Soaring electricity demand, infrastructure woes and a surge in global gas prices have triggered an extraordinary rally for the world’s least ...
Friday, 20 August 21
CHINA’S IRON ORE IMPORTS CONTRACTED YEAR-ON-YEAR BY 2% IN 2018 AND GREW YEAR-ON-YEAR BY ONLY 1% IN 2019 - COMMODORE RESEARCH
Examining the last ten years of China’s crude steel output and iron ore imports shows that China’s iron ore imports have stayed r ...
Friday, 13 August 21
INDONESIA’S COAL EXPORTS TO JAPAN DECLINED BY -26.3% YOY TO 11.9 MLN TONNES IN THE FIRST 7 MONTHS OF 2021; STILL THE SECOND LARGEST SOURCE FOR JAPAN’S COAL IMPORTS IS INDONESIA - BANCHERO COSTA
2020 proved to be a truly terrible year for global seaborne coal trade. Total global loadings in the 12 months of 2020 were down -12.7% year-on-yea ...
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- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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