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Wednesday, 03 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 November is here and soon the all time seasonal favorite “all I want or Christmas is you” by Mariah Carey will be played in radio stations around the world repeatedly. Now the shipping question is, “will the tanker segment get what it wants this Christmas”?
For gas, dry and container Christmas has arrived very early in 2021 with earnings reaching levels not seen for more than a decade putting an overdue smile on ship owners faces.
So has the time come eventually for the tankers as well? There have been a few false alarms this year. One in early 2021 and one just before the summer. The activity on the SnP was mainly for Aframax and VLCCs and was purely driven by speculation or otherwise put “counter-cyclical” investment behavior, while the actual freight market remained subdued. That resulted into tanker asset values increasing especially on the Aframax size. And shortly after that we saw the same ships sold less than a month ago to be again for sale in an asset play attempt to flip them for a short profit.
We think that now is the time to buy. Compared to the dry bulk and container markets where the upcycle is mainly driven by demand, tankers on the other hand are mainly oil and products supply depended. As product tanker earnings seem to be taking the lead in the tankers recovery and hopefully soon the crude tankers will follow with late Q4 being the inflection point for an upward market reversal. The oil products destocking cycle is expected to come to an end during Q4, when winter restocking demand for middle distillates products will be at its peak, and refineries are expected to accelerate their runs to cover the energy deficit. Refineries are set to benefit from the increase in diesel and jet fuel prices a trend that should unfold through Q1 2022. The market seems well positioned for rising heating oil/ diesel consumption in the Atlantic, as well as jet fuel, and thus East to West middle distillates trade is expected to pick up. Naphtha trade is also expected to pick up in the short term, as naphtha has become cheaper than propane as a feedstock in the petrochemical industry benefiting the West/Med to East naphtha trade. Gasoline exports from Europe to the U.S. are also expected to rise on open arbitrage North West Europe- USAC on the forward curve and low inventories in the US. Gasoline flows from East of Suez into West Africa are expected to decline by the end of the year, as Asia is seeking to keep supplies to serve domestic demand, which is likely to lead to an increase in demand for European gasoline supplies from West Africa and US East Coast simultaneously.
Based on what we see and anticipate as stated above the increase of product prices and the need to refill the inventories will be key to the extent of the market recovery over the next year.
This could be a good timing to buy product carriers. We are starting to see increased SnP activity mainly for 12-14 year old MRs and 10 to 5 year old LR2s. Strange mix but this is where the majority of buyers are concentrating. MR1s are not yet of interest and on the LR1s buyers are reacting mostly to units less than 10 years old but there are not a lot for sale, at least not yet. Values have remained stable over the past two months but we do not expect them to stay put. It’s a small window to invest now where the market is still in favor of the buyers.
By Timos Papadimitriou,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 27 September 21
CHINESE COAL FIRMS MEET TO ADDRESS WINTER SUPPLY CHALLENGES - CNBC
Major Chinese coal producers are trying to resolve supply shortages and curb price rises as the country’s winter consumption peak approaches, ...
Saturday, 25 September 21
HIGH STAKES FOR ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK’S AMBITIOUS COAL POWER RETIREMENT PLAN - IEEFA
Implementation challenges could block funding for other equally important high impact clean energy funding strategies
In the lead up ...
Thursday, 23 September 21
LONGER COAL CONTRACTS MAY REIN IN PRICES - ECNS
In China’s coal sector that has been marred recently by price surges, regional authorities and related enterprises should ensure the fuel con ...
Thursday, 23 September 21
BALTIC INDEX HITS 12-YEAR PEAK ON FIRMER VESSELS RATES - REUTERS
The Baltic Exchange’s main dry bulk sea freight index rose for a fourth straight session on Wednesday to a 12-year high, buoyed by higher rat ...
Thursday, 23 September 21
RECORD-HIGH GAS PRICES AFFECT MANY EUROPEAN CORPORATE SECTORS - FITCH RATINGS
Record-high natural gas prices are putting pressure on supply chains of many European corporate sectors, including non-integrated energy suppliers, ...
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- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- The University of Queensland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
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- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
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