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Wednesday, 03 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 November is here and soon the all time seasonal favorite “all I want or Christmas is you” by Mariah Carey will be played in radio stations around the world repeatedly. Now the shipping question is, “will the tanker segment get what it wants this Christmas”?
For gas, dry and container Christmas has arrived very early in 2021 with earnings reaching levels not seen for more than a decade putting an overdue smile on ship owners faces.
So has the time come eventually for the tankers as well? There have been a few false alarms this year. One in early 2021 and one just before the summer. The activity on the SnP was mainly for Aframax and VLCCs and was purely driven by speculation or otherwise put “counter-cyclical” investment behavior, while the actual freight market remained subdued. That resulted into tanker asset values increasing especially on the Aframax size. And shortly after that we saw the same ships sold less than a month ago to be again for sale in an asset play attempt to flip them for a short profit.
We think that now is the time to buy. Compared to the dry bulk and container markets where the upcycle is mainly driven by demand, tankers on the other hand are mainly oil and products supply depended. As product tanker earnings seem to be taking the lead in the tankers recovery and hopefully soon the crude tankers will follow with late Q4 being the inflection point for an upward market reversal. The oil products destocking cycle is expected to come to an end during Q4, when winter restocking demand for middle distillates products will be at its peak, and refineries are expected to accelerate their runs to cover the energy deficit. Refineries are set to benefit from the increase in diesel and jet fuel prices a trend that should unfold through Q1 2022. The market seems well positioned for rising heating oil/ diesel consumption in the Atlantic, as well as jet fuel, and thus East to West middle distillates trade is expected to pick up. Naphtha trade is also expected to pick up in the short term, as naphtha has become cheaper than propane as a feedstock in the petrochemical industry benefiting the West/Med to East naphtha trade. Gasoline exports from Europe to the U.S. are also expected to rise on open arbitrage North West Europe- USAC on the forward curve and low inventories in the US. Gasoline flows from East of Suez into West Africa are expected to decline by the end of the year, as Asia is seeking to keep supplies to serve domestic demand, which is likely to lead to an increase in demand for European gasoline supplies from West Africa and US East Coast simultaneously.
Based on what we see and anticipate as stated above the increase of product prices and the need to refill the inventories will be key to the extent of the market recovery over the next year.
This could be a good timing to buy product carriers. We are starting to see increased SnP activity mainly for 12-14 year old MRs and 10 to 5 year old LR2s. Strange mix but this is where the majority of buyers are concentrating. MR1s are not yet of interest and on the LR1s buyers are reacting mostly to units less than 10 years old but there are not a lot for sale, at least not yet. Values have remained stable over the past two months but we do not expect them to stay put. It’s a small window to invest now where the market is still in favor of the buyers.
By Timos Papadimitriou,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 14 October 21
SPIKING COAL PRICES: DON’T BLAME THE ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
Volatility highlights urgency for renewables-based energy solutions
“Energy crisis.” The phrase evokes nearly-forgotten ...
Thursday, 14 October 21
EIA FORECASTS U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TOTALS 588 MMST IN 2021, UP 53 MMST YOY
U.S. coal production in EIA's forecasts totals 588 million short tons (MMst) in 2021, 53 MMst more than in 2020.
According ...
Wednesday, 13 October 21
COAL PRICES ARE ROARING BACK AMID A GLOBAL ENERGY CRUNCH - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
Soaring coal prices have placed Australia’s mining and energy exports on track to reach a record $349 billion this year evenas the value of t ...
Wednesday, 13 October 21
CHINA ISN'T THE ONLY HUGE ASIAN ECONOMY WITH A COAL SHORTAGE NOW - CNBC
China is not the only Asian giant grappling with an energy crunch — India is also teetering on the edge of a power crisis.
Mos ...
Wednesday, 13 October 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Following up on our insight on May 2021, where we discussed about the Capesize market outlook for the second half of the year, we are pleased to se ...
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- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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