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Wednesday, 03 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 November is here and soon the all time seasonal favorite “all I want or Christmas is you” by Mariah Carey will be played in radio stations around the world repeatedly. Now the shipping question is, “will the tanker segment get what it wants this Christmas”?
For gas, dry and container Christmas has arrived very early in 2021 with earnings reaching levels not seen for more than a decade putting an overdue smile on ship owners faces.
So has the time come eventually for the tankers as well? There have been a few false alarms this year. One in early 2021 and one just before the summer. The activity on the SnP was mainly for Aframax and VLCCs and was purely driven by speculation or otherwise put “counter-cyclical” investment behavior, while the actual freight market remained subdued. That resulted into tanker asset values increasing especially on the Aframax size. And shortly after that we saw the same ships sold less than a month ago to be again for sale in an asset play attempt to flip them for a short profit.
We think that now is the time to buy. Compared to the dry bulk and container markets where the upcycle is mainly driven by demand, tankers on the other hand are mainly oil and products supply depended. As product tanker earnings seem to be taking the lead in the tankers recovery and hopefully soon the crude tankers will follow with late Q4 being the inflection point for an upward market reversal. The oil products destocking cycle is expected to come to an end during Q4, when winter restocking demand for middle distillates products will be at its peak, and refineries are expected to accelerate their runs to cover the energy deficit. Refineries are set to benefit from the increase in diesel and jet fuel prices a trend that should unfold through Q1 2022. The market seems well positioned for rising heating oil/ diesel consumption in the Atlantic, as well as jet fuel, and thus East to West middle distillates trade is expected to pick up. Naphtha trade is also expected to pick up in the short term, as naphtha has become cheaper than propane as a feedstock in the petrochemical industry benefiting the West/Med to East naphtha trade. Gasoline exports from Europe to the U.S. are also expected to rise on open arbitrage North West Europe- USAC on the forward curve and low inventories in the US. Gasoline flows from East of Suez into West Africa are expected to decline by the end of the year, as Asia is seeking to keep supplies to serve domestic demand, which is likely to lead to an increase in demand for European gasoline supplies from West Africa and US East Coast simultaneously.
Based on what we see and anticipate as stated above the increase of product prices and the need to refill the inventories will be key to the extent of the market recovery over the next year.
This could be a good timing to buy product carriers. We are starting to see increased SnP activity mainly for 12-14 year old MRs and 10 to 5 year old LR2s. Strange mix but this is where the majority of buyers are concentrating. MR1s are not yet of interest and on the LR1s buyers are reacting mostly to units less than 10 years old but there are not a lot for sale, at least not yet. Values have remained stable over the past two months but we do not expect them to stay put. It’s a small window to invest now where the market is still in favor of the buyers.
By Timos Papadimitriou,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 14 October 21
SPIKING COAL PRICES: DON’T BLAME THE ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
Volatility highlights urgency for renewables-based energy solutions
“Energy crisis.” The phrase evokes nearly-forgotten ...
Thursday, 14 October 21
EIA FORECASTS U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TOTALS 588 MMST IN 2021, UP 53 MMST YOY
U.S. coal production in EIA's forecasts totals 588 million short tons (MMst) in 2021, 53 MMst more than in 2020.
According ...
Wednesday, 13 October 21
COAL PRICES ARE ROARING BACK AMID A GLOBAL ENERGY CRUNCH - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
Soaring coal prices have placed Australia’s mining and energy exports on track to reach a record $349 billion this year evenas the value of t ...
Wednesday, 13 October 21
CHINA ISN'T THE ONLY HUGE ASIAN ECONOMY WITH A COAL SHORTAGE NOW - CNBC
China is not the only Asian giant grappling with an energy crunch — India is also teetering on the edge of a power crisis.
Mos ...
Wednesday, 13 October 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Following up on our insight on May 2021, where we discussed about the Capesize market outlook for the second half of the year, we are pleased to se ...
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- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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