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Wednesday, 03 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 November is here and soon the all time seasonal favorite “all I want or Christmas is you” by Mariah Carey will be played in radio stations around the world repeatedly. Now the shipping question is, “will the tanker segment get what it wants this Christmas”?
For gas, dry and container Christmas has arrived very early in 2021 with earnings reaching levels not seen for more than a decade putting an overdue smile on ship owners faces.
So has the time come eventually for the tankers as well? There have been a few false alarms this year. One in early 2021 and one just before the summer. The activity on the SnP was mainly for Aframax and VLCCs and was purely driven by speculation or otherwise put “counter-cyclical” investment behavior, while the actual freight market remained subdued. That resulted into tanker asset values increasing especially on the Aframax size. And shortly after that we saw the same ships sold less than a month ago to be again for sale in an asset play attempt to flip them for a short profit.
We think that now is the time to buy. Compared to the dry bulk and container markets where the upcycle is mainly driven by demand, tankers on the other hand are mainly oil and products supply depended. As product tanker earnings seem to be taking the lead in the tankers recovery and hopefully soon the crude tankers will follow with late Q4 being the inflection point for an upward market reversal. The oil products destocking cycle is expected to come to an end during Q4, when winter restocking demand for middle distillates products will be at its peak, and refineries are expected to accelerate their runs to cover the energy deficit. Refineries are set to benefit from the increase in diesel and jet fuel prices a trend that should unfold through Q1 2022. The market seems well positioned for rising heating oil/ diesel consumption in the Atlantic, as well as jet fuel, and thus East to West middle distillates trade is expected to pick up. Naphtha trade is also expected to pick up in the short term, as naphtha has become cheaper than propane as a feedstock in the petrochemical industry benefiting the West/Med to East naphtha trade. Gasoline exports from Europe to the U.S. are also expected to rise on open arbitrage North West Europe- USAC on the forward curve and low inventories in the US. Gasoline flows from East of Suez into West Africa are expected to decline by the end of the year, as Asia is seeking to keep supplies to serve domestic demand, which is likely to lead to an increase in demand for European gasoline supplies from West Africa and US East Coast simultaneously.
Based on what we see and anticipate as stated above the increase of product prices and the need to refill the inventories will be key to the extent of the market recovery over the next year.
This could be a good timing to buy product carriers. We are starting to see increased SnP activity mainly for 12-14 year old MRs and 10 to 5 year old LR2s. Strange mix but this is where the majority of buyers are concentrating. MR1s are not yet of interest and on the LR1s buyers are reacting mostly to units less than 10 years old but there are not a lot for sale, at least not yet. Values have remained stable over the past two months but we do not expect them to stay put. It’s a small window to invest now where the market is still in favor of the buyers.
By Timos Papadimitriou,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 20 October 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
IMO 2020, Ballast Water Treatment regulations, Green Recycling, GHG emissions, EEXI, CII, ETS, Fit for 55, Carbon price/levy, the Poseidon Principl ...
Tuesday, 19 October 21
SPONGE IRON SECTOR MIGHT REPORT NEGATIVE GROWTH DUE TO COAL CRISIS: SIMA - PTI
The domestic sponge iron industry might report a negative growth in the ongoing December quarter “if the shortage of coal is allowed to conti ...
Tuesday, 19 October 21
COAL INDIA, THE FALL GUY FOR POWER CRISIS - INDIA EXPRESS
The post-Covid economic recovery has led to a major increase in the demand for power, both in India and globally. In India, coal-based power plants ...
Saturday, 16 October 21
SOLAR INSTALLATION SURGE PUTS INDIA ON TRACK TO CAP COAL-FIRED POWER AS EARLY AS 2024 - IEEFA
Recent increase in solar power installations could push coal to peak sooner than expected
If India keeps installing solar capacity a ...
Saturday, 16 October 21
DESPITE HIGHER COAL PRICES, U.S. COAL RECOVERY LOOKS WEAK BY MOST MEASURES - IEEFA
U.S. coal sector is locked into a long-term sectoral decline
Coal prices have surged to the highest level in years in the U.S., and have soare ...
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- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Coal Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The University of Queensland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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