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Wednesday, 03 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 November is here and soon the all time seasonal favorite “all I want or Christmas is you” by Mariah Carey will be played in radio stations around the world repeatedly. Now the shipping question is, “will the tanker segment get what it wants this Christmas”?
For gas, dry and container Christmas has arrived very early in 2021 with earnings reaching levels not seen for more than a decade putting an overdue smile on ship owners faces.
So has the time come eventually for the tankers as well? There have been a few false alarms this year. One in early 2021 and one just before the summer. The activity on the SnP was mainly for Aframax and VLCCs and was purely driven by speculation or otherwise put “counter-cyclical” investment behavior, while the actual freight market remained subdued. That resulted into tanker asset values increasing especially on the Aframax size. And shortly after that we saw the same ships sold less than a month ago to be again for sale in an asset play attempt to flip them for a short profit.
We think that now is the time to buy. Compared to the dry bulk and container markets where the upcycle is mainly driven by demand, tankers on the other hand are mainly oil and products supply depended. As product tanker earnings seem to be taking the lead in the tankers recovery and hopefully soon the crude tankers will follow with late Q4 being the inflection point for an upward market reversal. The oil products destocking cycle is expected to come to an end during Q4, when winter restocking demand for middle distillates products will be at its peak, and refineries are expected to accelerate their runs to cover the energy deficit. Refineries are set to benefit from the increase in diesel and jet fuel prices a trend that should unfold through Q1 2022. The market seems well positioned for rising heating oil/ diesel consumption in the Atlantic, as well as jet fuel, and thus East to West middle distillates trade is expected to pick up. Naphtha trade is also expected to pick up in the short term, as naphtha has become cheaper than propane as a feedstock in the petrochemical industry benefiting the West/Med to East naphtha trade. Gasoline exports from Europe to the U.S. are also expected to rise on open arbitrage North West Europe- USAC on the forward curve and low inventories in the US. Gasoline flows from East of Suez into West Africa are expected to decline by the end of the year, as Asia is seeking to keep supplies to serve domestic demand, which is likely to lead to an increase in demand for European gasoline supplies from West Africa and US East Coast simultaneously.
Based on what we see and anticipate as stated above the increase of product prices and the need to refill the inventories will be key to the extent of the market recovery over the next year.
This could be a good timing to buy product carriers. We are starting to see increased SnP activity mainly for 12-14 year old MRs and 10 to 5 year old LR2s. Strange mix but this is where the majority of buyers are concentrating. MR1s are not yet of interest and on the LR1s buyers are reacting mostly to units less than 10 years old but there are not a lot for sale, at least not yet. Values have remained stable over the past two months but we do not expect them to stay put. It’s a small window to invest now where the market is still in favor of the buyers.
By Timos Papadimitriou,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 16 October 21
COAL IS 'KING' AS GAS PRICES SOAR, TOTAL CEO SAYS - AND IT’S BACKFIRING ON CLEANER ENERGY GOALS - CNBC
Surging natural gas prices have led to a jump in coal use, with plants in Europe and Asia firing back up as temperatures decline and the world grap ...
Saturday, 16 October 21
VIETNAM'S COAL-FIRED POWER MAY DOUBLE BY 2030 UNDER DRAFT ENERGY PLAN - REUTERS
Vietnam may double the amount of coal-fired electric generation it installs by 2030 under a draft power development plan submitted to the prime min ...
Friday, 15 October 21
AUSTRALIA'S WHITEHAVEN EXPECTS TO BE DEBT-FREE NEXT YEAR AS COAL PRICES SOAR - REUTERS
Australia’s Whitehaven Coal WHC.AX said on Thursday it expects to be debt-free by early 2022, as thermal coal prices surge to record highs on ...
Friday, 15 October 21
WINTER CHILL KEEPS CHINA'S COAL PRICES HIGH, POWER CRUNCH STOKES INFLATION - REUTERS
China coal prices held near record highs on Thursday as cold weather swept into the country’s north and power plants stocked up on the fuel t ...
Friday, 15 October 21
GLOBAL STEEL DEMAND GROWTH DOWNGRADED FOR 2021 DUE TO CHINA - WORLD STEEL ASSOCIATION
The World Steel Association (worldsteel) today released an update of its Short Range Outlook (SRO) for 2021 and 2022. worldsteel forecasts that ste ...
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- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
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