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Wednesday, 03 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 November is here and soon the all time seasonal favorite “all I want or Christmas is you” by Mariah Carey will be played in radio stations around the world repeatedly. Now the shipping question is, “will the tanker segment get what it wants this Christmas”?
For gas, dry and container Christmas has arrived very early in 2021 with earnings reaching levels not seen for more than a decade putting an overdue smile on ship owners faces.
So has the time come eventually for the tankers as well? There have been a few false alarms this year. One in early 2021 and one just before the summer. The activity on the SnP was mainly for Aframax and VLCCs and was purely driven by speculation or otherwise put “counter-cyclical” investment behavior, while the actual freight market remained subdued. That resulted into tanker asset values increasing especially on the Aframax size. And shortly after that we saw the same ships sold less than a month ago to be again for sale in an asset play attempt to flip them for a short profit.
We think that now is the time to buy. Compared to the dry bulk and container markets where the upcycle is mainly driven by demand, tankers on the other hand are mainly oil and products supply depended. As product tanker earnings seem to be taking the lead in the tankers recovery and hopefully soon the crude tankers will follow with late Q4 being the inflection point for an upward market reversal. The oil products destocking cycle is expected to come to an end during Q4, when winter restocking demand for middle distillates products will be at its peak, and refineries are expected to accelerate their runs to cover the energy deficit. Refineries are set to benefit from the increase in diesel and jet fuel prices a trend that should unfold through Q1 2022. The market seems well positioned for rising heating oil/ diesel consumption in the Atlantic, as well as jet fuel, and thus East to West middle distillates trade is expected to pick up. Naphtha trade is also expected to pick up in the short term, as naphtha has become cheaper than propane as a feedstock in the petrochemical industry benefiting the West/Med to East naphtha trade. Gasoline exports from Europe to the U.S. are also expected to rise on open arbitrage North West Europe- USAC on the forward curve and low inventories in the US. Gasoline flows from East of Suez into West Africa are expected to decline by the end of the year, as Asia is seeking to keep supplies to serve domestic demand, which is likely to lead to an increase in demand for European gasoline supplies from West Africa and US East Coast simultaneously.
Based on what we see and anticipate as stated above the increase of product prices and the need to refill the inventories will be key to the extent of the market recovery over the next year.
This could be a good timing to buy product carriers. We are starting to see increased SnP activity mainly for 12-14 year old MRs and 10 to 5 year old LR2s. Strange mix but this is where the majority of buyers are concentrating. MR1s are not yet of interest and on the LR1s buyers are reacting mostly to units less than 10 years old but there are not a lot for sale, at least not yet. Values have remained stable over the past two months but we do not expect them to stay put. It’s a small window to invest now where the market is still in favor of the buyers.
By Timos Papadimitriou,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 16 October 21
COAL IS 'KING' AS GAS PRICES SOAR, TOTAL CEO SAYS - AND IT’S BACKFIRING ON CLEANER ENERGY GOALS - CNBC
Surging natural gas prices have led to a jump in coal use, with plants in Europe and Asia firing back up as temperatures decline and the world grap ...
Saturday, 16 October 21
VIETNAM'S COAL-FIRED POWER MAY DOUBLE BY 2030 UNDER DRAFT ENERGY PLAN - REUTERS
Vietnam may double the amount of coal-fired electric generation it installs by 2030 under a draft power development plan submitted to the prime min ...
Friday, 15 October 21
AUSTRALIA'S WHITEHAVEN EXPECTS TO BE DEBT-FREE NEXT YEAR AS COAL PRICES SOAR - REUTERS
Australia’s Whitehaven Coal WHC.AX said on Thursday it expects to be debt-free by early 2022, as thermal coal prices surge to record highs on ...
Friday, 15 October 21
WINTER CHILL KEEPS CHINA'S COAL PRICES HIGH, POWER CRUNCH STOKES INFLATION - REUTERS
China coal prices held near record highs on Thursday as cold weather swept into the country’s north and power plants stocked up on the fuel t ...
Friday, 15 October 21
GLOBAL STEEL DEMAND GROWTH DOWNGRADED FOR 2021 DUE TO CHINA - WORLD STEEL ASSOCIATION
The World Steel Association (worldsteel) today released an update of its Short Range Outlook (SRO) for 2021 and 2022. worldsteel forecasts that ste ...
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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