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Wednesday, 03 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 November is here and soon the all time seasonal favorite “all I want or Christmas is you” by Mariah Carey will be played in radio stations around the world repeatedly. Now the shipping question is, “will the tanker segment get what it wants this Christmas”?
For gas, dry and container Christmas has arrived very early in 2021 with earnings reaching levels not seen for more than a decade putting an overdue smile on ship owners faces.
So has the time come eventually for the tankers as well? There have been a few false alarms this year. One in early 2021 and one just before the summer. The activity on the SnP was mainly for Aframax and VLCCs and was purely driven by speculation or otherwise put “counter-cyclical” investment behavior, while the actual freight market remained subdued. That resulted into tanker asset values increasing especially on the Aframax size. And shortly after that we saw the same ships sold less than a month ago to be again for sale in an asset play attempt to flip them for a short profit.
We think that now is the time to buy. Compared to the dry bulk and container markets where the upcycle is mainly driven by demand, tankers on the other hand are mainly oil and products supply depended. As product tanker earnings seem to be taking the lead in the tankers recovery and hopefully soon the crude tankers will follow with late Q4 being the inflection point for an upward market reversal. The oil products destocking cycle is expected to come to an end during Q4, when winter restocking demand for middle distillates products will be at its peak, and refineries are expected to accelerate their runs to cover the energy deficit. Refineries are set to benefit from the increase in diesel and jet fuel prices a trend that should unfold through Q1 2022. The market seems well positioned for rising heating oil/ diesel consumption in the Atlantic, as well as jet fuel, and thus East to West middle distillates trade is expected to pick up. Naphtha trade is also expected to pick up in the short term, as naphtha has become cheaper than propane as a feedstock in the petrochemical industry benefiting the West/Med to East naphtha trade. Gasoline exports from Europe to the U.S. are also expected to rise on open arbitrage North West Europe- USAC on the forward curve and low inventories in the US. Gasoline flows from East of Suez into West Africa are expected to decline by the end of the year, as Asia is seeking to keep supplies to serve domestic demand, which is likely to lead to an increase in demand for European gasoline supplies from West Africa and US East Coast simultaneously.
Based on what we see and anticipate as stated above the increase of product prices and the need to refill the inventories will be key to the extent of the market recovery over the next year.
This could be a good timing to buy product carriers. We are starting to see increased SnP activity mainly for 12-14 year old MRs and 10 to 5 year old LR2s. Strange mix but this is where the majority of buyers are concentrating. MR1s are not yet of interest and on the LR1s buyers are reacting mostly to units less than 10 years old but there are not a lot for sale, at least not yet. Values have remained stable over the past two months but we do not expect them to stay put. It’s a small window to invest now where the market is still in favor of the buyers.
By Timos Papadimitriou,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 09 October 21
CHINA POWER CUTS: COAL MINERS ORDERED TO BOOST OUTPUT, SAY REPORTS - BBC
Beijing has reportedly ordered China’s coal mines to boost output as an energy shortage across the country has seen millions of homes and bus ...
Friday, 08 October 21
SEPTEMBER CRUDE OIL TANKER DEMOLISHING HITS 39-MONTHS HIGH AT 1.9M DWT - PETER SAND
Has the lid finally come off for crude oil tanker demolition in 2021? If judged by the 1.9m DWT of capacity that was removed in September, the answ ...
Friday, 08 October 21
COAL SHORTAGE MAY LEAD TO RISE IN STEEL PRICES IN COMING MONTHS: JSPL MD - PTI
Steel prices are expected to increase in the coming months as companies are buying coal at three times the rates a month ago, said a top industry e ...
Wednesday, 06 October 21
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE: ANOTHER MONTH, ANOTHER RALLY
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference in a steep climb for most of second and third quarters of 2021 as it reached a pinnacle of $161.63 Oc ...
Wednesday, 06 October 21
EUROPEAN COAL FUTURES CLIMB TO 13-YEAR PEAK - REUTERS
European coal futures rose to a 13-year high and physical thermal coal prices were at record highs as rallying gas prices and strong Asian demand f ...
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Planning Commission, India
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