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Wednesday, 03 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 November is here and soon the all time seasonal favorite “all I want or Christmas is you” by Mariah Carey will be played in radio stations around the world repeatedly. Now the shipping question is, “will the tanker segment get what it wants this Christmas”?
For gas, dry and container Christmas has arrived very early in 2021 with earnings reaching levels not seen for more than a decade putting an overdue smile on ship owners faces.
So has the time come eventually for the tankers as well? There have been a few false alarms this year. One in early 2021 and one just before the summer. The activity on the SnP was mainly for Aframax and VLCCs and was purely driven by speculation or otherwise put “counter-cyclical” investment behavior, while the actual freight market remained subdued. That resulted into tanker asset values increasing especially on the Aframax size. And shortly after that we saw the same ships sold less than a month ago to be again for sale in an asset play attempt to flip them for a short profit.
We think that now is the time to buy. Compared to the dry bulk and container markets where the upcycle is mainly driven by demand, tankers on the other hand are mainly oil and products supply depended. As product tanker earnings seem to be taking the lead in the tankers recovery and hopefully soon the crude tankers will follow with late Q4 being the inflection point for an upward market reversal. The oil products destocking cycle is expected to come to an end during Q4, when winter restocking demand for middle distillates products will be at its peak, and refineries are expected to accelerate their runs to cover the energy deficit. Refineries are set to benefit from the increase in diesel and jet fuel prices a trend that should unfold through Q1 2022. The market seems well positioned for rising heating oil/ diesel consumption in the Atlantic, as well as jet fuel, and thus East to West middle distillates trade is expected to pick up. Naphtha trade is also expected to pick up in the short term, as naphtha has become cheaper than propane as a feedstock in the petrochemical industry benefiting the West/Med to East naphtha trade. Gasoline exports from Europe to the U.S. are also expected to rise on open arbitrage North West Europe- USAC on the forward curve and low inventories in the US. Gasoline flows from East of Suez into West Africa are expected to decline by the end of the year, as Asia is seeking to keep supplies to serve domestic demand, which is likely to lead to an increase in demand for European gasoline supplies from West Africa and US East Coast simultaneously.
Based on what we see and anticipate as stated above the increase of product prices and the need to refill the inventories will be key to the extent of the market recovery over the next year.
This could be a good timing to buy product carriers. We are starting to see increased SnP activity mainly for 12-14 year old MRs and 10 to 5 year old LR2s. Strange mix but this is where the majority of buyers are concentrating. MR1s are not yet of interest and on the LR1s buyers are reacting mostly to units less than 10 years old but there are not a lot for sale, at least not yet. Values have remained stable over the past two months but we do not expect them to stay put. It’s a small window to invest now where the market is still in favor of the buyers.
By Timos Papadimitriou,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 13 October 21
FBX INDEX: THE IMPOSSIBILITY OF SHORT-TERM FORECASTING - LARS JENSEN
Will freight rates on Asia-Europe or the Transpacific reach 40.000 USD/FFE in the run-up prior to Chinese New Year 2022? Or will they start droppin ...
Wednesday, 13 October 21
CHINA FLOODS: COAL PRICE HITS FRESH HIGH AS MINES SHUT - BBC
The price of coal used in China’s power plants has surged to a new record high as another of the country’s key mining regions is hit by ...
Tuesday, 12 October 21
BUMA SIGNS CONDITIONAL AGREEMENT FOR AUSTRALIAN ASSET ACQUISITION
PT Tbk. announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama, through its newly incorporated Australian subsidiary, BUMA International Pty ...
Tuesday, 12 October 21
INDONESIA'S COAL-BASED POWER PLANTS ARE SUBJECT TO CARBON TAX NEXT YEAR, ELECTRICITY COSTS COULD RISE! - CNBC
The Indonesian government is planning plans to implement a carbon tax of IDR 30 per kilogram (kg) of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) or equivalent ...
Monday, 11 October 21
COAL ABANDONMENT IN POWER GENERATION PROMOTED GAS DEMAND GROWTH IN EUROPE - TOP MANAGER: TASS
Accelerated abandonment of coal in power generation and the overall recovery of economic activity facilitated gas demand growth in Europe and led t ...
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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