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Wednesday, 03 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 November is here and soon the all time seasonal favorite “all I want or Christmas is you” by Mariah Carey will be played in radio stations around the world repeatedly. Now the shipping question is, “will the tanker segment get what it wants this Christmas”?
For gas, dry and container Christmas has arrived very early in 2021 with earnings reaching levels not seen for more than a decade putting an overdue smile on ship owners faces.
So has the time come eventually for the tankers as well? There have been a few false alarms this year. One in early 2021 and one just before the summer. The activity on the SnP was mainly for Aframax and VLCCs and was purely driven by speculation or otherwise put “counter-cyclical” investment behavior, while the actual freight market remained subdued. That resulted into tanker asset values increasing especially on the Aframax size. And shortly after that we saw the same ships sold less than a month ago to be again for sale in an asset play attempt to flip them for a short profit.
We think that now is the time to buy. Compared to the dry bulk and container markets where the upcycle is mainly driven by demand, tankers on the other hand are mainly oil and products supply depended. As product tanker earnings seem to be taking the lead in the tankers recovery and hopefully soon the crude tankers will follow with late Q4 being the inflection point for an upward market reversal. The oil products destocking cycle is expected to come to an end during Q4, when winter restocking demand for middle distillates products will be at its peak, and refineries are expected to accelerate their runs to cover the energy deficit. Refineries are set to benefit from the increase in diesel and jet fuel prices a trend that should unfold through Q1 2022. The market seems well positioned for rising heating oil/ diesel consumption in the Atlantic, as well as jet fuel, and thus East to West middle distillates trade is expected to pick up. Naphtha trade is also expected to pick up in the short term, as naphtha has become cheaper than propane as a feedstock in the petrochemical industry benefiting the West/Med to East naphtha trade. Gasoline exports from Europe to the U.S. are also expected to rise on open arbitrage North West Europe- USAC on the forward curve and low inventories in the US. Gasoline flows from East of Suez into West Africa are expected to decline by the end of the year, as Asia is seeking to keep supplies to serve domestic demand, which is likely to lead to an increase in demand for European gasoline supplies from West Africa and US East Coast simultaneously.
Based on what we see and anticipate as stated above the increase of product prices and the need to refill the inventories will be key to the extent of the market recovery over the next year.
This could be a good timing to buy product carriers. We are starting to see increased SnP activity mainly for 12-14 year old MRs and 10 to 5 year old LR2s. Strange mix but this is where the majority of buyers are concentrating. MR1s are not yet of interest and on the LR1s buyers are reacting mostly to units less than 10 years old but there are not a lot for sale, at least not yet. Values have remained stable over the past two months but we do not expect them to stay put. It’s a small window to invest now where the market is still in favor of the buyers.
By Timos Papadimitriou,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 13 October 21
FBX INDEX: THE IMPOSSIBILITY OF SHORT-TERM FORECASTING - LARS JENSEN
Will freight rates on Asia-Europe or the Transpacific reach 40.000 USD/FFE in the run-up prior to Chinese New Year 2022? Or will they start droppin ...
Wednesday, 13 October 21
CHINA FLOODS: COAL PRICE HITS FRESH HIGH AS MINES SHUT - BBC
The price of coal used in China’s power plants has surged to a new record high as another of the country’s key mining regions is hit by ...
Tuesday, 12 October 21
BUMA SIGNS CONDITIONAL AGREEMENT FOR AUSTRALIAN ASSET ACQUISITION
PT Tbk. announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama, through its newly incorporated Australian subsidiary, BUMA International Pty ...
Tuesday, 12 October 21
INDONESIA'S COAL-BASED POWER PLANTS ARE SUBJECT TO CARBON TAX NEXT YEAR, ELECTRICITY COSTS COULD RISE! - CNBC
The Indonesian government is planning plans to implement a carbon tax of IDR 30 per kilogram (kg) of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) or equivalent ...
Monday, 11 October 21
COAL ABANDONMENT IN POWER GENERATION PROMOTED GAS DEMAND GROWTH IN EUROPE - TOP MANAGER: TASS
Accelerated abandonment of coal in power generation and the overall recovery of economic activity facilitated gas demand growth in Europe and led t ...
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
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