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Wednesday, 03 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 November is here and soon the all time seasonal favorite “all I want or Christmas is you” by Mariah Carey will be played in radio stations around the world repeatedly. Now the shipping question is, “will the tanker segment get what it wants this Christmas”?
For gas, dry and container Christmas has arrived very early in 2021 with earnings reaching levels not seen for more than a decade putting an overdue smile on ship owners faces.
So has the time come eventually for the tankers as well? There have been a few false alarms this year. One in early 2021 and one just before the summer. The activity on the SnP was mainly for Aframax and VLCCs and was purely driven by speculation or otherwise put “counter-cyclical” investment behavior, while the actual freight market remained subdued. That resulted into tanker asset values increasing especially on the Aframax size. And shortly after that we saw the same ships sold less than a month ago to be again for sale in an asset play attempt to flip them for a short profit.
We think that now is the time to buy. Compared to the dry bulk and container markets where the upcycle is mainly driven by demand, tankers on the other hand are mainly oil and products supply depended. As product tanker earnings seem to be taking the lead in the tankers recovery and hopefully soon the crude tankers will follow with late Q4 being the inflection point for an upward market reversal. The oil products destocking cycle is expected to come to an end during Q4, when winter restocking demand for middle distillates products will be at its peak, and refineries are expected to accelerate their runs to cover the energy deficit. Refineries are set to benefit from the increase in diesel and jet fuel prices a trend that should unfold through Q1 2022. The market seems well positioned for rising heating oil/ diesel consumption in the Atlantic, as well as jet fuel, and thus East to West middle distillates trade is expected to pick up. Naphtha trade is also expected to pick up in the short term, as naphtha has become cheaper than propane as a feedstock in the petrochemical industry benefiting the West/Med to East naphtha trade. Gasoline exports from Europe to the U.S. are also expected to rise on open arbitrage North West Europe- USAC on the forward curve and low inventories in the US. Gasoline flows from East of Suez into West Africa are expected to decline by the end of the year, as Asia is seeking to keep supplies to serve domestic demand, which is likely to lead to an increase in demand for European gasoline supplies from West Africa and US East Coast simultaneously.
Based on what we see and anticipate as stated above the increase of product prices and the need to refill the inventories will be key to the extent of the market recovery over the next year.
This could be a good timing to buy product carriers. We are starting to see increased SnP activity mainly for 12-14 year old MRs and 10 to 5 year old LR2s. Strange mix but this is where the majority of buyers are concentrating. MR1s are not yet of interest and on the LR1s buyers are reacting mostly to units less than 10 years old but there are not a lot for sale, at least not yet. Values have remained stable over the past two months but we do not expect them to stay put. It’s a small window to invest now where the market is still in favor of the buyers.
By Timos Papadimitriou,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 22 October 21
HARD COAL REMAINS AN IMPORTANT FACTOR FOR SECURITY OF SUPPLY - COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION, GERMANY
- Hard coal remains an important factor for security of supply
- Increase of around 35% in hard-coal-fired power generation in the first three ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
CHINA'S COAL SHORTAGE TO EASE IN COMING MONTHS, INDUSTRY BODY SAYS - REUTERS
China’s coal shortage will likely ease in coming months, with domestic production and imports already showing signs of picking up, a coal ind ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
CHINA'S RAW COAL OUTPUT DROPS IN SEPTEMBER - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output dropped 0.9 percent year on year to 330 million tonnes last month, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
OVER-RELIANCE ON COAL IN OUR POWER MIX HURTING INDIA - LIVEMINT
In spite of the renewables push, coal still accounts for about 50% of India’s installed power capacity. That means a simultaneous demand and ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
CHINA COAL HITS RECORD HIGH AMID TIGHT SUPPLIES - REUTERS
China coal prices hit a record high on Tuesday buoyed by a widening power crunch and cold weather despite Beijing’s efforts to bolster supply ...
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- White Energy Company Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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