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Wednesday, 03 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 November is here and soon the all time seasonal favorite “all I want or Christmas is you” by Mariah Carey will be played in radio stations around the world repeatedly. Now the shipping question is, “will the tanker segment get what it wants this Christmas”?
For gas, dry and container Christmas has arrived very early in 2021 with earnings reaching levels not seen for more than a decade putting an overdue smile on ship owners faces.
So has the time come eventually for the tankers as well? There have been a few false alarms this year. One in early 2021 and one just before the summer. The activity on the SnP was mainly for Aframax and VLCCs and was purely driven by speculation or otherwise put “counter-cyclical” investment behavior, while the actual freight market remained subdued. That resulted into tanker asset values increasing especially on the Aframax size. And shortly after that we saw the same ships sold less than a month ago to be again for sale in an asset play attempt to flip them for a short profit.
We think that now is the time to buy. Compared to the dry bulk and container markets where the upcycle is mainly driven by demand, tankers on the other hand are mainly oil and products supply depended. As product tanker earnings seem to be taking the lead in the tankers recovery and hopefully soon the crude tankers will follow with late Q4 being the inflection point for an upward market reversal. The oil products destocking cycle is expected to come to an end during Q4, when winter restocking demand for middle distillates products will be at its peak, and refineries are expected to accelerate their runs to cover the energy deficit. Refineries are set to benefit from the increase in diesel and jet fuel prices a trend that should unfold through Q1 2022. The market seems well positioned for rising heating oil/ diesel consumption in the Atlantic, as well as jet fuel, and thus East to West middle distillates trade is expected to pick up. Naphtha trade is also expected to pick up in the short term, as naphtha has become cheaper than propane as a feedstock in the petrochemical industry benefiting the West/Med to East naphtha trade. Gasoline exports from Europe to the U.S. are also expected to rise on open arbitrage North West Europe- USAC on the forward curve and low inventories in the US. Gasoline flows from East of Suez into West Africa are expected to decline by the end of the year, as Asia is seeking to keep supplies to serve domestic demand, which is likely to lead to an increase in demand for European gasoline supplies from West Africa and US East Coast simultaneously.
Based on what we see and anticipate as stated above the increase of product prices and the need to refill the inventories will be key to the extent of the market recovery over the next year.
This could be a good timing to buy product carriers. We are starting to see increased SnP activity mainly for 12-14 year old MRs and 10 to 5 year old LR2s. Strange mix but this is where the majority of buyers are concentrating. MR1s are not yet of interest and on the LR1s buyers are reacting mostly to units less than 10 years old but there are not a lot for sale, at least not yet. Values have remained stable over the past two months but we do not expect them to stay put. It’s a small window to invest now where the market is still in favor of the buyers.
By Timos Papadimitriou,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 22 October 21
HARD COAL REMAINS AN IMPORTANT FACTOR FOR SECURITY OF SUPPLY - COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION, GERMANY
- Hard coal remains an important factor for security of supply
- Increase of around 35% in hard-coal-fired power generation in the first three ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
CHINA'S COAL SHORTAGE TO EASE IN COMING MONTHS, INDUSTRY BODY SAYS - REUTERS
China’s coal shortage will likely ease in coming months, with domestic production and imports already showing signs of picking up, a coal ind ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
CHINA'S RAW COAL OUTPUT DROPS IN SEPTEMBER - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output dropped 0.9 percent year on year to 330 million tonnes last month, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
OVER-RELIANCE ON COAL IN OUR POWER MIX HURTING INDIA - LIVEMINT
In spite of the renewables push, coal still accounts for about 50% of India’s installed power capacity. That means a simultaneous demand and ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
CHINA COAL HITS RECORD HIGH AMID TIGHT SUPPLIES - REUTERS
China coal prices hit a record high on Tuesday buoyed by a widening power crunch and cold weather despite Beijing’s efforts to bolster supply ...
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The University of Queensland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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