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Wednesday, 03 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 November is here and soon the all time seasonal favorite “all I want or Christmas is you” by Mariah Carey will be played in radio stations around the world repeatedly. Now the shipping question is, “will the tanker segment get what it wants this Christmas”?
For gas, dry and container Christmas has arrived very early in 2021 with earnings reaching levels not seen for more than a decade putting an overdue smile on ship owners faces.
So has the time come eventually for the tankers as well? There have been a few false alarms this year. One in early 2021 and one just before the summer. The activity on the SnP was mainly for Aframax and VLCCs and was purely driven by speculation or otherwise put “counter-cyclical” investment behavior, while the actual freight market remained subdued. That resulted into tanker asset values increasing especially on the Aframax size. And shortly after that we saw the same ships sold less than a month ago to be again for sale in an asset play attempt to flip them for a short profit.
We think that now is the time to buy. Compared to the dry bulk and container markets where the upcycle is mainly driven by demand, tankers on the other hand are mainly oil and products supply depended. As product tanker earnings seem to be taking the lead in the tankers recovery and hopefully soon the crude tankers will follow with late Q4 being the inflection point for an upward market reversal. The oil products destocking cycle is expected to come to an end during Q4, when winter restocking demand for middle distillates products will be at its peak, and refineries are expected to accelerate their runs to cover the energy deficit. Refineries are set to benefit from the increase in diesel and jet fuel prices a trend that should unfold through Q1 2022. The market seems well positioned for rising heating oil/ diesel consumption in the Atlantic, as well as jet fuel, and thus East to West middle distillates trade is expected to pick up. Naphtha trade is also expected to pick up in the short term, as naphtha has become cheaper than propane as a feedstock in the petrochemical industry benefiting the West/Med to East naphtha trade. Gasoline exports from Europe to the U.S. are also expected to rise on open arbitrage North West Europe- USAC on the forward curve and low inventories in the US. Gasoline flows from East of Suez into West Africa are expected to decline by the end of the year, as Asia is seeking to keep supplies to serve domestic demand, which is likely to lead to an increase in demand for European gasoline supplies from West Africa and US East Coast simultaneously.
Based on what we see and anticipate as stated above the increase of product prices and the need to refill the inventories will be key to the extent of the market recovery over the next year.
This could be a good timing to buy product carriers. We are starting to see increased SnP activity mainly for 12-14 year old MRs and 10 to 5 year old LR2s. Strange mix but this is where the majority of buyers are concentrating. MR1s are not yet of interest and on the LR1s buyers are reacting mostly to units less than 10 years old but there are not a lot for sale, at least not yet. Values have remained stable over the past two months but we do not expect them to stay put. It’s a small window to invest now where the market is still in favor of the buyers.
By Timos Papadimitriou,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 25 October 21
CHINA VOWS TO SEVERELY PUNISH MARKET VIOLATIONS AMID LOW COAL FUTURES PRICES - GLOBAL TIMES
Domestic coal futures had plunged for three consecutive trading days after the government vowed to crack down on soaring prices, and China’s ...
Monday, 25 October 21
FARMERS MAY JOIN THE COAL COMMODITY MARKET TO REDUCE RISKS - GLOBAL TIMES
A recent trip to by the Global Times to East China’s Shandong Province to get a glimpse of China’s coal supply chain revealed a surpris ...
Monday, 25 October 21
CHINA COAL PRICES MARK WORST WEEK SINCE MAY ON GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal futures plunged on Friday and turned in their worst week in five months, following Beijing’s strongest interventio ...
Friday, 22 October 21
THE BIG PICTURE: ENERGY MARKETS - BREAK WAVE ADVISORS
The shipping markets have been pulled further into wild markets of coal and other energy sources. Given how nebulous this sector is, it’s alw ...
Friday, 22 October 21
CHINA WANTS TO COOL COAL PRICES. SIMILAR MOVES FOR METALS, CRUDE FAILED - REUTERS
China’s latest attempt to lower runaway commodity prices, this time for thermal coal, is likely to follow a familiar pattern of initial succe ...
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Planning Commission, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
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