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Wednesday, 03 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 November is here and soon the all time seasonal favorite “all I want or Christmas is you” by Mariah Carey will be played in radio stations around the world repeatedly. Now the shipping question is, “will the tanker segment get what it wants this Christmas”?
For gas, dry and container Christmas has arrived very early in 2021 with earnings reaching levels not seen for more than a decade putting an overdue smile on ship owners faces.
So has the time come eventually for the tankers as well? There have been a few false alarms this year. One in early 2021 and one just before the summer. The activity on the SnP was mainly for Aframax and VLCCs and was purely driven by speculation or otherwise put “counter-cyclical” investment behavior, while the actual freight market remained subdued. That resulted into tanker asset values increasing especially on the Aframax size. And shortly after that we saw the same ships sold less than a month ago to be again for sale in an asset play attempt to flip them for a short profit.
We think that now is the time to buy. Compared to the dry bulk and container markets where the upcycle is mainly driven by demand, tankers on the other hand are mainly oil and products supply depended. As product tanker earnings seem to be taking the lead in the tankers recovery and hopefully soon the crude tankers will follow with late Q4 being the inflection point for an upward market reversal. The oil products destocking cycle is expected to come to an end during Q4, when winter restocking demand for middle distillates products will be at its peak, and refineries are expected to accelerate their runs to cover the energy deficit. Refineries are set to benefit from the increase in diesel and jet fuel prices a trend that should unfold through Q1 2022. The market seems well positioned for rising heating oil/ diesel consumption in the Atlantic, as well as jet fuel, and thus East to West middle distillates trade is expected to pick up. Naphtha trade is also expected to pick up in the short term, as naphtha has become cheaper than propane as a feedstock in the petrochemical industry benefiting the West/Med to East naphtha trade. Gasoline exports from Europe to the U.S. are also expected to rise on open arbitrage North West Europe- USAC on the forward curve and low inventories in the US. Gasoline flows from East of Suez into West Africa are expected to decline by the end of the year, as Asia is seeking to keep supplies to serve domestic demand, which is likely to lead to an increase in demand for European gasoline supplies from West Africa and US East Coast simultaneously.
Based on what we see and anticipate as stated above the increase of product prices and the need to refill the inventories will be key to the extent of the market recovery over the next year.
This could be a good timing to buy product carriers. We are starting to see increased SnP activity mainly for 12-14 year old MRs and 10 to 5 year old LR2s. Strange mix but this is where the majority of buyers are concentrating. MR1s are not yet of interest and on the LR1s buyers are reacting mostly to units less than 10 years old but there are not a lot for sale, at least not yet. Values have remained stable over the past two months but we do not expect them to stay put. It’s a small window to invest now where the market is still in favor of the buyers.
By Timos Papadimitriou,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 25 October 21
CHINA VOWS TO SEVERELY PUNISH MARKET VIOLATIONS AMID LOW COAL FUTURES PRICES - GLOBAL TIMES
Domestic coal futures had plunged for three consecutive trading days after the government vowed to crack down on soaring prices, and China’s ...
Monday, 25 October 21
FARMERS MAY JOIN THE COAL COMMODITY MARKET TO REDUCE RISKS - GLOBAL TIMES
A recent trip to by the Global Times to East China’s Shandong Province to get a glimpse of China’s coal supply chain revealed a surpris ...
Monday, 25 October 21
CHINA COAL PRICES MARK WORST WEEK SINCE MAY ON GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal futures plunged on Friday and turned in their worst week in five months, following Beijing’s strongest interventio ...
Friday, 22 October 21
THE BIG PICTURE: ENERGY MARKETS - BREAK WAVE ADVISORS
The shipping markets have been pulled further into wild markets of coal and other energy sources. Given how nebulous this sector is, it’s alw ...
Friday, 22 October 21
CHINA WANTS TO COOL COAL PRICES. SIMILAR MOVES FOR METALS, CRUDE FAILED - REUTERS
China’s latest attempt to lower runaway commodity prices, this time for thermal coal, is likely to follow a familiar pattern of initial succe ...
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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