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Wednesday, 03 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 November is here and soon the all time seasonal favorite “all I want or Christmas is you” by Mariah Carey will be played in radio stations around the world repeatedly. Now the shipping question is, “will the tanker segment get what it wants this Christmas”?
For gas, dry and container Christmas has arrived very early in 2021 with earnings reaching levels not seen for more than a decade putting an overdue smile on ship owners faces.
So has the time come eventually for the tankers as well? There have been a few false alarms this year. One in early 2021 and one just before the summer. The activity on the SnP was mainly for Aframax and VLCCs and was purely driven by speculation or otherwise put “counter-cyclical” investment behavior, while the actual freight market remained subdued. That resulted into tanker asset values increasing especially on the Aframax size. And shortly after that we saw the same ships sold less than a month ago to be again for sale in an asset play attempt to flip them for a short profit.
We think that now is the time to buy. Compared to the dry bulk and container markets where the upcycle is mainly driven by demand, tankers on the other hand are mainly oil and products supply depended. As product tanker earnings seem to be taking the lead in the tankers recovery and hopefully soon the crude tankers will follow with late Q4 being the inflection point for an upward market reversal. The oil products destocking cycle is expected to come to an end during Q4, when winter restocking demand for middle distillates products will be at its peak, and refineries are expected to accelerate their runs to cover the energy deficit. Refineries are set to benefit from the increase in diesel and jet fuel prices a trend that should unfold through Q1 2022. The market seems well positioned for rising heating oil/ diesel consumption in the Atlantic, as well as jet fuel, and thus East to West middle distillates trade is expected to pick up. Naphtha trade is also expected to pick up in the short term, as naphtha has become cheaper than propane as a feedstock in the petrochemical industry benefiting the West/Med to East naphtha trade. Gasoline exports from Europe to the U.S. are also expected to rise on open arbitrage North West Europe- USAC on the forward curve and low inventories in the US. Gasoline flows from East of Suez into West Africa are expected to decline by the end of the year, as Asia is seeking to keep supplies to serve domestic demand, which is likely to lead to an increase in demand for European gasoline supplies from West Africa and US East Coast simultaneously.
Based on what we see and anticipate as stated above the increase of product prices and the need to refill the inventories will be key to the extent of the market recovery over the next year.
This could be a good timing to buy product carriers. We are starting to see increased SnP activity mainly for 12-14 year old MRs and 10 to 5 year old LR2s. Strange mix but this is where the majority of buyers are concentrating. MR1s are not yet of interest and on the LR1s buyers are reacting mostly to units less than 10 years old but there are not a lot for sale, at least not yet. Values have remained stable over the past two months but we do not expect them to stay put. It’s a small window to invest now where the market is still in favor of the buyers.
By Timos Papadimitriou,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 26 October 21
ENERGY CRISIS SHOWS COAL IS AN EXPENSIVE AND UNRELIABLE SOURCE OF ELECTRICITY GENERATION - IEEFA
Any knee-jerk reaction that urges more investment in coal completely misses the point
India is teetering on the brink of joining a growing glo ...
Tuesday, 26 October 21
CHINA TO INVESTIGATE ENERGY INDEX PROVIDERS IN BID TO TAME COAL PRICES - REUTERS
China said on Monday it will investigate energy price index providers as it urged coal industry participants to “strictly” meet contrac ...
Tuesday, 26 October 21
THERE IS PLENTY OF COAL AND GAS IN THE WORLD BUT A VOLATILE MARKET IS NOBODY'S FRIEND - IEEFA
Gas will be winding its way out of the energy system
Gas prices are continuing to surge around the world. The cost of gas is at unpr ...
Tuesday, 26 October 21
AUSTRALIA EXPORTED 51.6 MLN TONNES OF COAL TO INDIA IN FIRST 10 MONTHS, 19% OF ALL AUSTRALIAN COAL EXPORTS; CHINA WAS THE DESTINATION FOR JUST 0.7% - BANCHERO COSTA
2020 proved to be a truly terrible year for global seaborne coal trade. In 2021 things started pretty badly, but we are seeing increasing signs of ...
Monday, 25 October 21
A QUESTION OF POSSESSION - THE BALTIC EXCHANGE
Possession and tangibility are closely related concepts long established under English law. Yet a change to these concepts is around the corner. Th ...
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Coal Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
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