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Wednesday, 03 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 November is here and soon the all time seasonal favorite “all I want or Christmas is you” by Mariah Carey will be played in radio stations around the world repeatedly. Now the shipping question is, “will the tanker segment get what it wants this Christmas”?
For gas, dry and container Christmas has arrived very early in 2021 with earnings reaching levels not seen for more than a decade putting an overdue smile on ship owners faces.
So has the time come eventually for the tankers as well? There have been a few false alarms this year. One in early 2021 and one just before the summer. The activity on the SnP was mainly for Aframax and VLCCs and was purely driven by speculation or otherwise put “counter-cyclical” investment behavior, while the actual freight market remained subdued. That resulted into tanker asset values increasing especially on the Aframax size. And shortly after that we saw the same ships sold less than a month ago to be again for sale in an asset play attempt to flip them for a short profit.
We think that now is the time to buy. Compared to the dry bulk and container markets where the upcycle is mainly driven by demand, tankers on the other hand are mainly oil and products supply depended. As product tanker earnings seem to be taking the lead in the tankers recovery and hopefully soon the crude tankers will follow with late Q4 being the inflection point for an upward market reversal. The oil products destocking cycle is expected to come to an end during Q4, when winter restocking demand for middle distillates products will be at its peak, and refineries are expected to accelerate their runs to cover the energy deficit. Refineries are set to benefit from the increase in diesel and jet fuel prices a trend that should unfold through Q1 2022. The market seems well positioned for rising heating oil/ diesel consumption in the Atlantic, as well as jet fuel, and thus East to West middle distillates trade is expected to pick up. Naphtha trade is also expected to pick up in the short term, as naphtha has become cheaper than propane as a feedstock in the petrochemical industry benefiting the West/Med to East naphtha trade. Gasoline exports from Europe to the U.S. are also expected to rise on open arbitrage North West Europe- USAC on the forward curve and low inventories in the US. Gasoline flows from East of Suez into West Africa are expected to decline by the end of the year, as Asia is seeking to keep supplies to serve domestic demand, which is likely to lead to an increase in demand for European gasoline supplies from West Africa and US East Coast simultaneously.
Based on what we see and anticipate as stated above the increase of product prices and the need to refill the inventories will be key to the extent of the market recovery over the next year.
This could be a good timing to buy product carriers. We are starting to see increased SnP activity mainly for 12-14 year old MRs and 10 to 5 year old LR2s. Strange mix but this is where the majority of buyers are concentrating. MR1s are not yet of interest and on the LR1s buyers are reacting mostly to units less than 10 years old but there are not a lot for sale, at least not yet. Values have remained stable over the past two months but we do not expect them to stay put. It’s a small window to invest now where the market is still in favor of the buyers.
By Timos Papadimitriou,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 26 October 21
ENERGY CRISIS SHOWS COAL IS AN EXPENSIVE AND UNRELIABLE SOURCE OF ELECTRICITY GENERATION - IEEFA
Any knee-jerk reaction that urges more investment in coal completely misses the point
India is teetering on the brink of joining a growing glo ...
Tuesday, 26 October 21
CHINA TO INVESTIGATE ENERGY INDEX PROVIDERS IN BID TO TAME COAL PRICES - REUTERS
China said on Monday it will investigate energy price index providers as it urged coal industry participants to “strictly” meet contrac ...
Tuesday, 26 October 21
THERE IS PLENTY OF COAL AND GAS IN THE WORLD BUT A VOLATILE MARKET IS NOBODY'S FRIEND - IEEFA
Gas will be winding its way out of the energy system
Gas prices are continuing to surge around the world. The cost of gas is at unpr ...
Tuesday, 26 October 21
AUSTRALIA EXPORTED 51.6 MLN TONNES OF COAL TO INDIA IN FIRST 10 MONTHS, 19% OF ALL AUSTRALIAN COAL EXPORTS; CHINA WAS THE DESTINATION FOR JUST 0.7% - BANCHERO COSTA
2020 proved to be a truly terrible year for global seaborne coal trade. In 2021 things started pretty badly, but we are seeing increasing signs of ...
Monday, 25 October 21
A QUESTION OF POSSESSION - THE BALTIC EXCHANGE
Possession and tangibility are closely related concepts long established under English law. Yet a change to these concepts is around the corner. Th ...
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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