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Wednesday, 03 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 November is here and soon the all time seasonal favorite “all I want or Christmas is you” by Mariah Carey will be played in radio stations around the world repeatedly. Now the shipping question is, “will the tanker segment get what it wants this Christmas”?
For gas, dry and container Christmas has arrived very early in 2021 with earnings reaching levels not seen for more than a decade putting an overdue smile on ship owners faces.
So has the time come eventually for the tankers as well? There have been a few false alarms this year. One in early 2021 and one just before the summer. The activity on the SnP was mainly for Aframax and VLCCs and was purely driven by speculation or otherwise put “counter-cyclical” investment behavior, while the actual freight market remained subdued. That resulted into tanker asset values increasing especially on the Aframax size. And shortly after that we saw the same ships sold less than a month ago to be again for sale in an asset play attempt to flip them for a short profit.
We think that now is the time to buy. Compared to the dry bulk and container markets where the upcycle is mainly driven by demand, tankers on the other hand are mainly oil and products supply depended. As product tanker earnings seem to be taking the lead in the tankers recovery and hopefully soon the crude tankers will follow with late Q4 being the inflection point for an upward market reversal. The oil products destocking cycle is expected to come to an end during Q4, when winter restocking demand for middle distillates products will be at its peak, and refineries are expected to accelerate their runs to cover the energy deficit. Refineries are set to benefit from the increase in diesel and jet fuel prices a trend that should unfold through Q1 2022. The market seems well positioned for rising heating oil/ diesel consumption in the Atlantic, as well as jet fuel, and thus East to West middle distillates trade is expected to pick up. Naphtha trade is also expected to pick up in the short term, as naphtha has become cheaper than propane as a feedstock in the petrochemical industry benefiting the West/Med to East naphtha trade. Gasoline exports from Europe to the U.S. are also expected to rise on open arbitrage North West Europe- USAC on the forward curve and low inventories in the US. Gasoline flows from East of Suez into West Africa are expected to decline by the end of the year, as Asia is seeking to keep supplies to serve domestic demand, which is likely to lead to an increase in demand for European gasoline supplies from West Africa and US East Coast simultaneously.
Based on what we see and anticipate as stated above the increase of product prices and the need to refill the inventories will be key to the extent of the market recovery over the next year.
This could be a good timing to buy product carriers. We are starting to see increased SnP activity mainly for 12-14 year old MRs and 10 to 5 year old LR2s. Strange mix but this is where the majority of buyers are concentrating. MR1s are not yet of interest and on the LR1s buyers are reacting mostly to units less than 10 years old but there are not a lot for sale, at least not yet. Values have remained stable over the past two months but we do not expect them to stay put. It’s a small window to invest now where the market is still in favor of the buyers.
By Timos Papadimitriou,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 30 October 21
CHINA'S COAL PRICES SEE BIGGEST WEEKLY FALL IN MORE THAN 5 YEARS - REUTERS
China’s coal futures prices saw their biggest fall in more than five years after the powerful state planner said there is still room to adjus ...
Saturday, 30 October 21
G-20 LEADERS PREPARE STATEMENT TO STOP FUNDING FOREIGN COAL PLANTS - BLOOMBERG
Leaders of the Group of 20 wealthy economies are preparing to pledge to stop funding foreign coal-fired plants, but are still wrangling over climat ...
Friday, 29 October 21
APAC THERMAL COAL SUPPLY TO REMAIN TIGHT AS WINTER LOOMS - FITCH RATINGS
APAC thermal coal prices have surged, hitting historically high levels. The benchmark Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg grade coal reached USD228/tonne in mid ...
Thursday, 28 October 21
CANADA BAN ON SHIPPING COAL WOULD EQUAL SCRAPPING AS MANY AS 3 MILLION CARS - IEEFA
Canada ban on shipping coal would equal scrapping as many as 3 million cars
Change in Canadian policy could have major implications ...
Tuesday, 26 October 21
CHINA'S COAL-RICH SHANXI BEEFS UP COAL PRODUCTION - XINHUA
Major coal producers in north China’s Shanxi Province, a leading coal-producing region of the country, have beefed up production to ensure en ...
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- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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