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Wednesday, 03 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 November is here and soon the all time seasonal favorite “all I want or Christmas is you” by Mariah Carey will be played in radio stations around the world repeatedly. Now the shipping question is, “will the tanker segment get what it wants this Christmas”?
For gas, dry and container Christmas has arrived very early in 2021 with earnings reaching levels not seen for more than a decade putting an overdue smile on ship owners faces.
So has the time come eventually for the tankers as well? There have been a few false alarms this year. One in early 2021 and one just before the summer. The activity on the SnP was mainly for Aframax and VLCCs and was purely driven by speculation or otherwise put “counter-cyclical” investment behavior, while the actual freight market remained subdued. That resulted into tanker asset values increasing especially on the Aframax size. And shortly after that we saw the same ships sold less than a month ago to be again for sale in an asset play attempt to flip them for a short profit.
We think that now is the time to buy. Compared to the dry bulk and container markets where the upcycle is mainly driven by demand, tankers on the other hand are mainly oil and products supply depended. As product tanker earnings seem to be taking the lead in the tankers recovery and hopefully soon the crude tankers will follow with late Q4 being the inflection point for an upward market reversal. The oil products destocking cycle is expected to come to an end during Q4, when winter restocking demand for middle distillates products will be at its peak, and refineries are expected to accelerate their runs to cover the energy deficit. Refineries are set to benefit from the increase in diesel and jet fuel prices a trend that should unfold through Q1 2022. The market seems well positioned for rising heating oil/ diesel consumption in the Atlantic, as well as jet fuel, and thus East to West middle distillates trade is expected to pick up. Naphtha trade is also expected to pick up in the short term, as naphtha has become cheaper than propane as a feedstock in the petrochemical industry benefiting the West/Med to East naphtha trade. Gasoline exports from Europe to the U.S. are also expected to rise on open arbitrage North West Europe- USAC on the forward curve and low inventories in the US. Gasoline flows from East of Suez into West Africa are expected to decline by the end of the year, as Asia is seeking to keep supplies to serve domestic demand, which is likely to lead to an increase in demand for European gasoline supplies from West Africa and US East Coast simultaneously.
Based on what we see and anticipate as stated above the increase of product prices and the need to refill the inventories will be key to the extent of the market recovery over the next year.
This could be a good timing to buy product carriers. We are starting to see increased SnP activity mainly for 12-14 year old MRs and 10 to 5 year old LR2s. Strange mix but this is where the majority of buyers are concentrating. MR1s are not yet of interest and on the LR1s buyers are reacting mostly to units less than 10 years old but there are not a lot for sale, at least not yet. Values have remained stable over the past two months but we do not expect them to stay put. It’s a small window to invest now where the market is still in favor of the buyers.
By Timos Papadimitriou,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 04 November 21
FASTER DECARBONISATION: BACK TO BASICS FOR THE MINING INDUSTRY? - WOOD MACKENZIE
To the uninitiated, rugby is a technical and complicated game. As young schoolboys it was all a wee bit confusing and we invariably ended up on the ...
Wednesday, 03 November 21
CHINA TO LAUNCH NEW DATA MONITORING SYSTEM, TARGETING COAL MARKET SPECULATION, HOARDING - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s top economic planner announced on Sunday a new data system for supervising the implementation of medium- and long-term contracts of c ...
Wednesday, 03 November 21
CHINA’S STATE PLANNER SAYS COAL SUPPLY IMPROVING, PRICES STABILISING - REUTERS
China’s coal supply situation has seen significant improvement with joint efforts from coal producers, logistics and downstream users, while ...
Wednesday, 03 November 21
HIGHER COKING COAL PRICES TO PARE PROFITABILITY OF STEELMAKERS IN SECOND HALF OF FY22 - CRISIL RATINGS
The operating margin of primary steelmakers will reduce by a third to 24-26% in the second half of this fiscal versus the first half as input cost ...
Monday, 01 November 21
COAL PRICES HAVE FURTHER ROOM TO DROP: TOP ECONOMIC PLANNER - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s top economic planner said coal prices have further room to drop on Friday, as the most traded coal futures dropped to below 1,000 yua ...
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- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The University of Queensland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
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