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Wednesday, 03 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 November is here and soon the all time seasonal favorite “all I want or Christmas is you” by Mariah Carey will be played in radio stations around the world repeatedly. Now the shipping question is, “will the tanker segment get what it wants this Christmas”?
For gas, dry and container Christmas has arrived very early in 2021 with earnings reaching levels not seen for more than a decade putting an overdue smile on ship owners faces.
So has the time come eventually for the tankers as well? There have been a few false alarms this year. One in early 2021 and one just before the summer. The activity on the SnP was mainly for Aframax and VLCCs and was purely driven by speculation or otherwise put “counter-cyclical” investment behavior, while the actual freight market remained subdued. That resulted into tanker asset values increasing especially on the Aframax size. And shortly after that we saw the same ships sold less than a month ago to be again for sale in an asset play attempt to flip them for a short profit.
We think that now is the time to buy. Compared to the dry bulk and container markets where the upcycle is mainly driven by demand, tankers on the other hand are mainly oil and products supply depended. As product tanker earnings seem to be taking the lead in the tankers recovery and hopefully soon the crude tankers will follow with late Q4 being the inflection point for an upward market reversal. The oil products destocking cycle is expected to come to an end during Q4, when winter restocking demand for middle distillates products will be at its peak, and refineries are expected to accelerate their runs to cover the energy deficit. Refineries are set to benefit from the increase in diesel and jet fuel prices a trend that should unfold through Q1 2022. The market seems well positioned for rising heating oil/ diesel consumption in the Atlantic, as well as jet fuel, and thus East to West middle distillates trade is expected to pick up. Naphtha trade is also expected to pick up in the short term, as naphtha has become cheaper than propane as a feedstock in the petrochemical industry benefiting the West/Med to East naphtha trade. Gasoline exports from Europe to the U.S. are also expected to rise on open arbitrage North West Europe- USAC on the forward curve and low inventories in the US. Gasoline flows from East of Suez into West Africa are expected to decline by the end of the year, as Asia is seeking to keep supplies to serve domestic demand, which is likely to lead to an increase in demand for European gasoline supplies from West Africa and US East Coast simultaneously.
Based on what we see and anticipate as stated above the increase of product prices and the need to refill the inventories will be key to the extent of the market recovery over the next year.
This could be a good timing to buy product carriers. We are starting to see increased SnP activity mainly for 12-14 year old MRs and 10 to 5 year old LR2s. Strange mix but this is where the majority of buyers are concentrating. MR1s are not yet of interest and on the LR1s buyers are reacting mostly to units less than 10 years old but there are not a lot for sale, at least not yet. Values have remained stable over the past two months but we do not expect them to stay put. It’s a small window to invest now where the market is still in favor of the buyers.
By Timos Papadimitriou,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 04 November 21
FASTER DECARBONISATION: BACK TO BASICS FOR THE MINING INDUSTRY? - WOOD MACKENZIE
To the uninitiated, rugby is a technical and complicated game. As young schoolboys it was all a wee bit confusing and we invariably ended up on the ...
Wednesday, 03 November 21
CHINA TO LAUNCH NEW DATA MONITORING SYSTEM, TARGETING COAL MARKET SPECULATION, HOARDING - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s top economic planner announced on Sunday a new data system for supervising the implementation of medium- and long-term contracts of c ...
Wednesday, 03 November 21
CHINA’S STATE PLANNER SAYS COAL SUPPLY IMPROVING, PRICES STABILISING - REUTERS
China’s coal supply situation has seen significant improvement with joint efforts from coal producers, logistics and downstream users, while ...
Wednesday, 03 November 21
HIGHER COKING COAL PRICES TO PARE PROFITABILITY OF STEELMAKERS IN SECOND HALF OF FY22 - CRISIL RATINGS
The operating margin of primary steelmakers will reduce by a third to 24-26% in the second half of this fiscal versus the first half as input cost ...
Monday, 01 November 21
COAL PRICES HAVE FURTHER ROOM TO DROP: TOP ECONOMIC PLANNER - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s top economic planner said coal prices have further room to drop on Friday, as the most traded coal futures dropped to below 1,000 yua ...
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The University of Queensland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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