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Wednesday, 03 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 November is here and soon the all time seasonal favorite “all I want or Christmas is you” by Mariah Carey will be played in radio stations around the world repeatedly. Now the shipping question is, “will the tanker segment get what it wants this Christmas”?
For gas, dry and container Christmas has arrived very early in 2021 with earnings reaching levels not seen for more than a decade putting an overdue smile on ship owners faces.
So has the time come eventually for the tankers as well? There have been a few false alarms this year. One in early 2021 and one just before the summer. The activity on the SnP was mainly for Aframax and VLCCs and was purely driven by speculation or otherwise put “counter-cyclical” investment behavior, while the actual freight market remained subdued. That resulted into tanker asset values increasing especially on the Aframax size. And shortly after that we saw the same ships sold less than a month ago to be again for sale in an asset play attempt to flip them for a short profit.
We think that now is the time to buy. Compared to the dry bulk and container markets where the upcycle is mainly driven by demand, tankers on the other hand are mainly oil and products supply depended. As product tanker earnings seem to be taking the lead in the tankers recovery and hopefully soon the crude tankers will follow with late Q4 being the inflection point for an upward market reversal. The oil products destocking cycle is expected to come to an end during Q4, when winter restocking demand for middle distillates products will be at its peak, and refineries are expected to accelerate their runs to cover the energy deficit. Refineries are set to benefit from the increase in diesel and jet fuel prices a trend that should unfold through Q1 2022. The market seems well positioned for rising heating oil/ diesel consumption in the Atlantic, as well as jet fuel, and thus East to West middle distillates trade is expected to pick up. Naphtha trade is also expected to pick up in the short term, as naphtha has become cheaper than propane as a feedstock in the petrochemical industry benefiting the West/Med to East naphtha trade. Gasoline exports from Europe to the U.S. are also expected to rise on open arbitrage North West Europe- USAC on the forward curve and low inventories in the US. Gasoline flows from East of Suez into West Africa are expected to decline by the end of the year, as Asia is seeking to keep supplies to serve domestic demand, which is likely to lead to an increase in demand for European gasoline supplies from West Africa and US East Coast simultaneously.
Based on what we see and anticipate as stated above the increase of product prices and the need to refill the inventories will be key to the extent of the market recovery over the next year.
This could be a good timing to buy product carriers. We are starting to see increased SnP activity mainly for 12-14 year old MRs and 10 to 5 year old LR2s. Strange mix but this is where the majority of buyers are concentrating. MR1s are not yet of interest and on the LR1s buyers are reacting mostly to units less than 10 years old but there are not a lot for sale, at least not yet. Values have remained stable over the past two months but we do not expect them to stay put. It’s a small window to invest now where the market is still in favor of the buyers.
By Timos Papadimitriou,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 04 November 21
FASTER DECARBONISATION: BACK TO BASICS FOR THE MINING INDUSTRY? - WOOD MACKENZIE
To the uninitiated, rugby is a technical and complicated game. As young schoolboys it was all a wee bit confusing and we invariably ended up on the ...
Wednesday, 03 November 21
CHINA TO LAUNCH NEW DATA MONITORING SYSTEM, TARGETING COAL MARKET SPECULATION, HOARDING - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s top economic planner announced on Sunday a new data system for supervising the implementation of medium- and long-term contracts of c ...
Wednesday, 03 November 21
CHINA’S STATE PLANNER SAYS COAL SUPPLY IMPROVING, PRICES STABILISING - REUTERS
China’s coal supply situation has seen significant improvement with joint efforts from coal producers, logistics and downstream users, while ...
Wednesday, 03 November 21
HIGHER COKING COAL PRICES TO PARE PROFITABILITY OF STEELMAKERS IN SECOND HALF OF FY22 - CRISIL RATINGS
The operating margin of primary steelmakers will reduce by a third to 24-26% in the second half of this fiscal versus the first half as input cost ...
Monday, 01 November 21
COAL PRICES HAVE FURTHER ROOM TO DROP: TOP ECONOMIC PLANNER - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s top economic planner said coal prices have further room to drop on Friday, as the most traded coal futures dropped to below 1,000 yua ...
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- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The University of Queensland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
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