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Wednesday, 03 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 November is here and soon the all time seasonal favorite “all I want or Christmas is you” by Mariah Carey will be played in radio stations around the world repeatedly. Now the shipping question is, “will the tanker segment get what it wants this Christmas”?
For gas, dry and container Christmas has arrived very early in 2021 with earnings reaching levels not seen for more than a decade putting an overdue smile on ship owners faces.
So has the time come eventually for the tankers as well? There have been a few false alarms this year. One in early 2021 and one just before the summer. The activity on the SnP was mainly for Aframax and VLCCs and was purely driven by speculation or otherwise put “counter-cyclical” investment behavior, while the actual freight market remained subdued. That resulted into tanker asset values increasing especially on the Aframax size. And shortly after that we saw the same ships sold less than a month ago to be again for sale in an asset play attempt to flip them for a short profit.
We think that now is the time to buy. Compared to the dry bulk and container markets where the upcycle is mainly driven by demand, tankers on the other hand are mainly oil and products supply depended. As product tanker earnings seem to be taking the lead in the tankers recovery and hopefully soon the crude tankers will follow with late Q4 being the inflection point for an upward market reversal. The oil products destocking cycle is expected to come to an end during Q4, when winter restocking demand for middle distillates products will be at its peak, and refineries are expected to accelerate their runs to cover the energy deficit. Refineries are set to benefit from the increase in diesel and jet fuel prices a trend that should unfold through Q1 2022. The market seems well positioned for rising heating oil/ diesel consumption in the Atlantic, as well as jet fuel, and thus East to West middle distillates trade is expected to pick up. Naphtha trade is also expected to pick up in the short term, as naphtha has become cheaper than propane as a feedstock in the petrochemical industry benefiting the West/Med to East naphtha trade. Gasoline exports from Europe to the U.S. are also expected to rise on open arbitrage North West Europe- USAC on the forward curve and low inventories in the US. Gasoline flows from East of Suez into West Africa are expected to decline by the end of the year, as Asia is seeking to keep supplies to serve domestic demand, which is likely to lead to an increase in demand for European gasoline supplies from West Africa and US East Coast simultaneously.
Based on what we see and anticipate as stated above the increase of product prices and the need to refill the inventories will be key to the extent of the market recovery over the next year.
This could be a good timing to buy product carriers. We are starting to see increased SnP activity mainly for 12-14 year old MRs and 10 to 5 year old LR2s. Strange mix but this is where the majority of buyers are concentrating. MR1s are not yet of interest and on the LR1s buyers are reacting mostly to units less than 10 years old but there are not a lot for sale, at least not yet. Values have remained stable over the past two months but we do not expect them to stay put. It’s a small window to invest now where the market is still in favor of the buyers.
By Timos Papadimitriou,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 11 November 21
ASIA COAL POWER PIPELINE TO SHRINK BY TWO THIRDS AFTER CHINA FINANCE CUT - REUTERS
Asia’s pipeline of proposed coal-fired power plants is expected to shrink from 65 gigawatts to 22 gigawatts following China’s pledge to ...
Tuesday, 09 November 21
ASIA-PACIFIC IS HOME TO SOME OF THE WORLD'S LARGEST CARBON-EMITTERS - 2 CHARTS SHOW ITS RELIANCE ON COAL - CNBC
Asia-Pacific is home to some of the world’s largest carbon emitters — and experts say much of global efforts to fight climate change de ...
Tuesday, 09 November 21
CHINA DAILY COAL OUTPUT HITS MULTI-YEAR PEAK, PRICES EXPECTED TO FALL - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output hit 11.93 million tonnes last week, a multi-year high as more capacity returned to operation, the state planner sai ...
Thursday, 04 November 21
CHINA'S COAL MARKET SEES SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENTS: NDRC - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s top economic planner has declared initial success in its efforts to ensure coal supply and stabilize prices, saying that daily coal o ...
Thursday, 04 November 21
CHINA THERMAL COAL PRICES RISE AFTER FALLING FOR 10 DAYS - REUTERS
China thermal coal futures rebounded on Wednesday after falling for 10 days on an expected jump in fuel demand to meet heating needs amid forecasts ...
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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