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Wednesday, 03 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 November is here and soon the all time seasonal favorite “all I want or Christmas is you” by Mariah Carey will be played in radio stations around the world repeatedly. Now the shipping question is, “will the tanker segment get what it wants this Christmas”?
For gas, dry and container Christmas has arrived very early in 2021 with earnings reaching levels not seen for more than a decade putting an overdue smile on ship owners faces.
So has the time come eventually for the tankers as well? There have been a few false alarms this year. One in early 2021 and one just before the summer. The activity on the SnP was mainly for Aframax and VLCCs and was purely driven by speculation or otherwise put “counter-cyclical” investment behavior, while the actual freight market remained subdued. That resulted into tanker asset values increasing especially on the Aframax size. And shortly after that we saw the same ships sold less than a month ago to be again for sale in an asset play attempt to flip them for a short profit.
We think that now is the time to buy. Compared to the dry bulk and container markets where the upcycle is mainly driven by demand, tankers on the other hand are mainly oil and products supply depended. As product tanker earnings seem to be taking the lead in the tankers recovery and hopefully soon the crude tankers will follow with late Q4 being the inflection point for an upward market reversal. The oil products destocking cycle is expected to come to an end during Q4, when winter restocking demand for middle distillates products will be at its peak, and refineries are expected to accelerate their runs to cover the energy deficit. Refineries are set to benefit from the increase in diesel and jet fuel prices a trend that should unfold through Q1 2022. The market seems well positioned for rising heating oil/ diesel consumption in the Atlantic, as well as jet fuel, and thus East to West middle distillates trade is expected to pick up. Naphtha trade is also expected to pick up in the short term, as naphtha has become cheaper than propane as a feedstock in the petrochemical industry benefiting the West/Med to East naphtha trade. Gasoline exports from Europe to the U.S. are also expected to rise on open arbitrage North West Europe- USAC on the forward curve and low inventories in the US. Gasoline flows from East of Suez into West Africa are expected to decline by the end of the year, as Asia is seeking to keep supplies to serve domestic demand, which is likely to lead to an increase in demand for European gasoline supplies from West Africa and US East Coast simultaneously.
Based on what we see and anticipate as stated above the increase of product prices and the need to refill the inventories will be key to the extent of the market recovery over the next year.
This could be a good timing to buy product carriers. We are starting to see increased SnP activity mainly for 12-14 year old MRs and 10 to 5 year old LR2s. Strange mix but this is where the majority of buyers are concentrating. MR1s are not yet of interest and on the LR1s buyers are reacting mostly to units less than 10 years old but there are not a lot for sale, at least not yet. Values have remained stable over the past two months but we do not expect them to stay put. It’s a small window to invest now where the market is still in favor of the buyers.
By Timos Papadimitriou,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 16 November 21
INDONESIA’S 2022 COAL USE FOR POWER GENERATION SET TO RISE 3% - REUTERS
Indonesia’s coal consumption for power generation is likely to rise by 3.1% next year compared to 2021, the head of the country’s state ...
Tuesday, 16 November 21
CHINA'S MONTHLY COAL OUTPUT RISES TO HIGHEST SINCE MARCH 2015 - REUTERS
China’s October coal output rose to the highest since at least March 2015, after Beijing approved a raft of coal mine expansions to tame reco ...
Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Dre ...
Friday, 12 November 21
ASIA COAL POWER PIPELINE TO SHRINK BY TWO THIRDS AFTER CHINA FINANCE CUT - REUTERS
Asia’s pipeline of proposed coal-fired power plants is expected to shrink from 65 gigawatts to 22 gigawatts following China’s pledge to ...
Friday, 12 November 21
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE TOPS $215 A TON; THE HIGHEST COAL PRICE IN HISTORY
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference in a steep climb for most of second half of 2021 as it reached a pinnacle of $215.01 in November 2021 ...
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The University of Queensland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
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