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Wednesday, 03 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 November is here and soon the all time seasonal favorite “all I want or Christmas is you” by Mariah Carey will be played in radio stations around the world repeatedly. Now the shipping question is, “will the tanker segment get what it wants this Christmas”?
For gas, dry and container Christmas has arrived very early in 2021 with earnings reaching levels not seen for more than a decade putting an overdue smile on ship owners faces.
So has the time come eventually for the tankers as well? There have been a few false alarms this year. One in early 2021 and one just before the summer. The activity on the SnP was mainly for Aframax and VLCCs and was purely driven by speculation or otherwise put “counter-cyclical” investment behavior, while the actual freight market remained subdued. That resulted into tanker asset values increasing especially on the Aframax size. And shortly after that we saw the same ships sold less than a month ago to be again for sale in an asset play attempt to flip them for a short profit.
We think that now is the time to buy. Compared to the dry bulk and container markets where the upcycle is mainly driven by demand, tankers on the other hand are mainly oil and products supply depended. As product tanker earnings seem to be taking the lead in the tankers recovery and hopefully soon the crude tankers will follow with late Q4 being the inflection point for an upward market reversal. The oil products destocking cycle is expected to come to an end during Q4, when winter restocking demand for middle distillates products will be at its peak, and refineries are expected to accelerate their runs to cover the energy deficit. Refineries are set to benefit from the increase in diesel and jet fuel prices a trend that should unfold through Q1 2022. The market seems well positioned for rising heating oil/ diesel consumption in the Atlantic, as well as jet fuel, and thus East to West middle distillates trade is expected to pick up. Naphtha trade is also expected to pick up in the short term, as naphtha has become cheaper than propane as a feedstock in the petrochemical industry benefiting the West/Med to East naphtha trade. Gasoline exports from Europe to the U.S. are also expected to rise on open arbitrage North West Europe- USAC on the forward curve and low inventories in the US. Gasoline flows from East of Suez into West Africa are expected to decline by the end of the year, as Asia is seeking to keep supplies to serve domestic demand, which is likely to lead to an increase in demand for European gasoline supplies from West Africa and US East Coast simultaneously.
Based on what we see and anticipate as stated above the increase of product prices and the need to refill the inventories will be key to the extent of the market recovery over the next year.
This could be a good timing to buy product carriers. We are starting to see increased SnP activity mainly for 12-14 year old MRs and 10 to 5 year old LR2s. Strange mix but this is where the majority of buyers are concentrating. MR1s are not yet of interest and on the LR1s buyers are reacting mostly to units less than 10 years old but there are not a lot for sale, at least not yet. Values have remained stable over the past two months but we do not expect them to stay put. It’s a small window to invest now where the market is still in favor of the buyers.
By Timos Papadimitriou,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 24 November 21
WHY THIS MINING ANALYST IS UPBEAT ON THE IRON ORE PRICE FORECAST - MOTLEY FOOL
In many ways, 2021 can be called the year of the iron ore price. Much of the talk of the ASX town this year has revolved around this key economic m ...
Wednesday, 24 November 21
PRICE OF CHINA’S COAL FUTURE DROPS BY 60% AS NATIONWIDE DAILY OUTPUT REACHES OVER 12 MILLION TONS: NDRC - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s daily coal output has now stabilized after reaching over 12 million tons and the price of coal futures has declined to 800 yuan ($125 ...
Friday, 19 November 21
CHINA: COAL SUPPLIES TO STABILIZE FOR COMING COLD SEASON
China is capable of ensuring stable coal supplies this winter and next spring with the increase in coal production and the rising stockpiles at pow ...
Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a ...
Tuesday, 16 November 21
EARNINGS RECOVERY IN INDONESIAN COAL TO CONTINUE THROUGH 2021, BUT SLOW IN 2022 - FITCH RATINGS
The recovery in the operating and financial performance of Indonesian coal miners and coal contractors is likely to slow in 2022, but coal prices s ...
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Coal Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
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