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Wednesday, 03 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 November is here and soon the all time seasonal favorite “all I want or Christmas is you” by Mariah Carey will be played in radio stations around the world repeatedly. Now the shipping question is, “will the tanker segment get what it wants this Christmas”?
For gas, dry and container Christmas has arrived very early in 2021 with earnings reaching levels not seen for more than a decade putting an overdue smile on ship owners faces.
So has the time come eventually for the tankers as well? There have been a few false alarms this year. One in early 2021 and one just before the summer. The activity on the SnP was mainly for Aframax and VLCCs and was purely driven by speculation or otherwise put “counter-cyclical” investment behavior, while the actual freight market remained subdued. That resulted into tanker asset values increasing especially on the Aframax size. And shortly after that we saw the same ships sold less than a month ago to be again for sale in an asset play attempt to flip them for a short profit.
We think that now is the time to buy. Compared to the dry bulk and container markets where the upcycle is mainly driven by demand, tankers on the other hand are mainly oil and products supply depended. As product tanker earnings seem to be taking the lead in the tankers recovery and hopefully soon the crude tankers will follow with late Q4 being the inflection point for an upward market reversal. The oil products destocking cycle is expected to come to an end during Q4, when winter restocking demand for middle distillates products will be at its peak, and refineries are expected to accelerate their runs to cover the energy deficit. Refineries are set to benefit from the increase in diesel and jet fuel prices a trend that should unfold through Q1 2022. The market seems well positioned for rising heating oil/ diesel consumption in the Atlantic, as well as jet fuel, and thus East to West middle distillates trade is expected to pick up. Naphtha trade is also expected to pick up in the short term, as naphtha has become cheaper than propane as a feedstock in the petrochemical industry benefiting the West/Med to East naphtha trade. Gasoline exports from Europe to the U.S. are also expected to rise on open arbitrage North West Europe- USAC on the forward curve and low inventories in the US. Gasoline flows from East of Suez into West Africa are expected to decline by the end of the year, as Asia is seeking to keep supplies to serve domestic demand, which is likely to lead to an increase in demand for European gasoline supplies from West Africa and US East Coast simultaneously.
Based on what we see and anticipate as stated above the increase of product prices and the need to refill the inventories will be key to the extent of the market recovery over the next year.
This could be a good timing to buy product carriers. We are starting to see increased SnP activity mainly for 12-14 year old MRs and 10 to 5 year old LR2s. Strange mix but this is where the majority of buyers are concentrating. MR1s are not yet of interest and on the LR1s buyers are reacting mostly to units less than 10 years old but there are not a lot for sale, at least not yet. Values have remained stable over the past two months but we do not expect them to stay put. It’s a small window to invest now where the market is still in favor of the buyers.
By Timos Papadimitriou,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 05 January 22
CHINA COAL FUTURES SURGE ON SUPPLY WORRIES AMID INDONESIA EXPORT BAN - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal futures surged by as much as 7.8per cent to kick off 2022 on concerns of supply disruptions after Indonesia, its biggest ...
Wednesday, 05 January 22
INDONESIA WARNS COAL SUPPLY CRUNCH NOT OVER AS CHINA PRICES RALLY - REUTERS
Indonesia has warned that its coal supply situation remains critical, ahead of Wednesday’s (Jan 5) review of its export ban, unnerving global ...
Tuesday, 28 December 21
INDIA'S ADANI NEARS FIRST COAL SHIPMENT FROM SHUNNED AUSTRALIAN MINE - REUTERS
India’s Adani Group ADEL.NS is preparing to ship the first coal cargo from Australia’s most controversial mine, after battling a seven- ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
COAL TO STAY AS MAJOR SOURCE OF ENERGY IN FORESEEABLE FUTURE: JOSHI - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal will stay as a major source of energy in the foreseeable future as it is an affordable source of energy with substantial reserve, Parliament w ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
ANNUAL U.S. COAL-FIRED ELECTRICITY GENERATION WILL INCREASE FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE 2014 - EIA
From December 20 through December 30, Today in Energy will feature some of our favorite articles from 2021. Today’s article was originally pu ...
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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