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Wednesday, 03 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 November is here and soon the all time seasonal favorite “all I want or Christmas is you” by Mariah Carey will be played in radio stations around the world repeatedly. Now the shipping question is, “will the tanker segment get what it wants this Christmas”?
For gas, dry and container Christmas has arrived very early in 2021 with earnings reaching levels not seen for more than a decade putting an overdue smile on ship owners faces.
So has the time come eventually for the tankers as well? There have been a few false alarms this year. One in early 2021 and one just before the summer. The activity on the SnP was mainly for Aframax and VLCCs and was purely driven by speculation or otherwise put “counter-cyclical” investment behavior, while the actual freight market remained subdued. That resulted into tanker asset values increasing especially on the Aframax size. And shortly after that we saw the same ships sold less than a month ago to be again for sale in an asset play attempt to flip them for a short profit.
We think that now is the time to buy. Compared to the dry bulk and container markets where the upcycle is mainly driven by demand, tankers on the other hand are mainly oil and products supply depended. As product tanker earnings seem to be taking the lead in the tankers recovery and hopefully soon the crude tankers will follow with late Q4 being the inflection point for an upward market reversal. The oil products destocking cycle is expected to come to an end during Q4, when winter restocking demand for middle distillates products will be at its peak, and refineries are expected to accelerate their runs to cover the energy deficit. Refineries are set to benefit from the increase in diesel and jet fuel prices a trend that should unfold through Q1 2022. The market seems well positioned for rising heating oil/ diesel consumption in the Atlantic, as well as jet fuel, and thus East to West middle distillates trade is expected to pick up. Naphtha trade is also expected to pick up in the short term, as naphtha has become cheaper than propane as a feedstock in the petrochemical industry benefiting the West/Med to East naphtha trade. Gasoline exports from Europe to the U.S. are also expected to rise on open arbitrage North West Europe- USAC on the forward curve and low inventories in the US. Gasoline flows from East of Suez into West Africa are expected to decline by the end of the year, as Asia is seeking to keep supplies to serve domestic demand, which is likely to lead to an increase in demand for European gasoline supplies from West Africa and US East Coast simultaneously.
Based on what we see and anticipate as stated above the increase of product prices and the need to refill the inventories will be key to the extent of the market recovery over the next year.
This could be a good timing to buy product carriers. We are starting to see increased SnP activity mainly for 12-14 year old MRs and 10 to 5 year old LR2s. Strange mix but this is where the majority of buyers are concentrating. MR1s are not yet of interest and on the LR1s buyers are reacting mostly to units less than 10 years old but there are not a lot for sale, at least not yet. Values have remained stable over the past two months but we do not expect them to stay put. It’s a small window to invest now where the market is still in favor of the buyers.
By Timos Papadimitriou,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 27 January 22
2022 - A YEAR OF REBALANCING FOR METALS AND MINING - WOOD MACKENZIE
If 2021 was the year of rebound for metals and mining (M&M) commodities, then 2022 is shaping as the year of rebalance, says Wood Mackenzie, a ...
Wednesday, 26 January 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While it is logical that most of the S&P reports of the first weeks of the year are linked to very limited activity as reflected in the weekly ...
Wednesday, 26 January 22
INDONESIA: DME PROJECT IS ECONOMICALLY VIABLE AS STUDY DEMONSTRATES
The government is encouraging downstream coal processing or increase in coal added value, for example by turning coal into Dimethyl Ether (DME) to ...
Wednesday, 26 January 22
COMMODITY PRICES COULD SOAR IF THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE CRISIS ESCALATES - ING
It appears that a number of commodity markets are starting to at least price in some geopolitical risk around the growing tension between Russia an ...
Wednesday, 26 January 22
INDONESIA'S COAL BAN SENDS PRICES SOARING, OTHER EXPORTERS FAIL TO STEP UP - REUTERS
Indonesia’s short-lived ban on exporting coal has sent ructions through the seaborne market for the fuel in Asia, with the fallout likely to ...
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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