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Wednesday, 03 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 November is here and soon the all time seasonal favorite “all I want or Christmas is you” by Mariah Carey will be played in radio stations around the world repeatedly. Now the shipping question is, “will the tanker segment get what it wants this Christmas”?
For gas, dry and container Christmas has arrived very early in 2021 with earnings reaching levels not seen for more than a decade putting an overdue smile on ship owners faces.
So has the time come eventually for the tankers as well? There have been a few false alarms this year. One in early 2021 and one just before the summer. The activity on the SnP was mainly for Aframax and VLCCs and was purely driven by speculation or otherwise put “counter-cyclical” investment behavior, while the actual freight market remained subdued. That resulted into tanker asset values increasing especially on the Aframax size. And shortly after that we saw the same ships sold less than a month ago to be again for sale in an asset play attempt to flip them for a short profit.
We think that now is the time to buy. Compared to the dry bulk and container markets where the upcycle is mainly driven by demand, tankers on the other hand are mainly oil and products supply depended. As product tanker earnings seem to be taking the lead in the tankers recovery and hopefully soon the crude tankers will follow with late Q4 being the inflection point for an upward market reversal. The oil products destocking cycle is expected to come to an end during Q4, when winter restocking demand for middle distillates products will be at its peak, and refineries are expected to accelerate their runs to cover the energy deficit. Refineries are set to benefit from the increase in diesel and jet fuel prices a trend that should unfold through Q1 2022. The market seems well positioned for rising heating oil/ diesel consumption in the Atlantic, as well as jet fuel, and thus East to West middle distillates trade is expected to pick up. Naphtha trade is also expected to pick up in the short term, as naphtha has become cheaper than propane as a feedstock in the petrochemical industry benefiting the West/Med to East naphtha trade. Gasoline exports from Europe to the U.S. are also expected to rise on open arbitrage North West Europe- USAC on the forward curve and low inventories in the US. Gasoline flows from East of Suez into West Africa are expected to decline by the end of the year, as Asia is seeking to keep supplies to serve domestic demand, which is likely to lead to an increase in demand for European gasoline supplies from West Africa and US East Coast simultaneously.
Based on what we see and anticipate as stated above the increase of product prices and the need to refill the inventories will be key to the extent of the market recovery over the next year.
This could be a good timing to buy product carriers. We are starting to see increased SnP activity mainly for 12-14 year old MRs and 10 to 5 year old LR2s. Strange mix but this is where the majority of buyers are concentrating. MR1s are not yet of interest and on the LR1s buyers are reacting mostly to units less than 10 years old but there are not a lot for sale, at least not yet. Values have remained stable over the past two months but we do not expect them to stay put. It’s a small window to invest now where the market is still in favor of the buyers.
By Timos Papadimitriou,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 21 January 22
CHINA'S POWER TRADING TARIFFS TO RISE IN 2022 - FITCH RATINGS
Rising trading volume and higher-than-benchmark tariffs in the 2022 bilateral contracts signed between Chinese power generation companies (gencos) ...
Thursday, 20 January 22
CHINESE COAL JUMPS OVER 6% ON PRE-HOLIDAY SUPPLY WORRY - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal futures soared more than 6% on Wednesday, hitting a level last seen in late November as investors grew concerned over ti ...
Thursday, 20 January 22
VIETNAM: COAL SECTOR SEES POSITIVE PROSPECT IN 2022 - VNA
With many signs of rising demand for coal in various economic sectors in 2022, the Vietnam National Coal – Mineral Industries Group (Vinacomi ...
Wednesday, 19 January 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Since the beginning of the year, we have been witnessing the BDI correcting downwards with sizable drops across all segments. Latest similar levels ...
Sunday, 09 January 22
INDONESIA MINISTER SAYS 'EMERGENCY OVER' ON COAL SUPPLY CRUNCH - REUTERS
Indonesia’s power emergency which has triggered a coal export ban is over but the government will still continue to discuss policies in this ...
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- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
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