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Wednesday, 03 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 November is here and soon the all time seasonal favorite “all I want or Christmas is you” by Mariah Carey will be played in radio stations around the world repeatedly. Now the shipping question is, “will the tanker segment get what it wants this Christmas”?
For gas, dry and container Christmas has arrived very early in 2021 with earnings reaching levels not seen for more than a decade putting an overdue smile on ship owners faces.
So has the time come eventually for the tankers as well? There have been a few false alarms this year. One in early 2021 and one just before the summer. The activity on the SnP was mainly for Aframax and VLCCs and was purely driven by speculation or otherwise put “counter-cyclical” investment behavior, while the actual freight market remained subdued. That resulted into tanker asset values increasing especially on the Aframax size. And shortly after that we saw the same ships sold less than a month ago to be again for sale in an asset play attempt to flip them for a short profit.
We think that now is the time to buy. Compared to the dry bulk and container markets where the upcycle is mainly driven by demand, tankers on the other hand are mainly oil and products supply depended. As product tanker earnings seem to be taking the lead in the tankers recovery and hopefully soon the crude tankers will follow with late Q4 being the inflection point for an upward market reversal. The oil products destocking cycle is expected to come to an end during Q4, when winter restocking demand for middle distillates products will be at its peak, and refineries are expected to accelerate their runs to cover the energy deficit. Refineries are set to benefit from the increase in diesel and jet fuel prices a trend that should unfold through Q1 2022. The market seems well positioned for rising heating oil/ diesel consumption in the Atlantic, as well as jet fuel, and thus East to West middle distillates trade is expected to pick up. Naphtha trade is also expected to pick up in the short term, as naphtha has become cheaper than propane as a feedstock in the petrochemical industry benefiting the West/Med to East naphtha trade. Gasoline exports from Europe to the U.S. are also expected to rise on open arbitrage North West Europe- USAC on the forward curve and low inventories in the US. Gasoline flows from East of Suez into West Africa are expected to decline by the end of the year, as Asia is seeking to keep supplies to serve domestic demand, which is likely to lead to an increase in demand for European gasoline supplies from West Africa and US East Coast simultaneously.
Based on what we see and anticipate as stated above the increase of product prices and the need to refill the inventories will be key to the extent of the market recovery over the next year.
This could be a good timing to buy product carriers. We are starting to see increased SnP activity mainly for 12-14 year old MRs and 10 to 5 year old LR2s. Strange mix but this is where the majority of buyers are concentrating. MR1s are not yet of interest and on the LR1s buyers are reacting mostly to units less than 10 years old but there are not a lot for sale, at least not yet. Values have remained stable over the past two months but we do not expect them to stay put. It’s a small window to invest now where the market is still in favor of the buyers.
By Timos Papadimitriou,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 23 December 21
COAL DEMAND TO PEAK IN INDIA BY 2030, WILL BACK UP RENEWABLES: NITI REPORT - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal will remain India’s mainstay energy source and the country will shape global demand this decade, two reports have said a month after the ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
INDONESIA’S 2022 COAL OUTPUT SEEN BETWEEN 637 MLN-664 MLN T- OFFICIAL - REUTERS
Indonesia’s 2022 coal output is estimated at between 637 million to 664 million tonnes based on production plans currently being finalised, s ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
VALE ANNOUNCES THE SALE OF ITS COAL ASSETS
Vale informs that, on this date, it has entered into a binding agreement with Vulcan to sell the Moatize coal mine and the Nacala Logistics Corrido ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
INDIA: CAPTIVE POWER PRODUCERS URGE GOVT TO ENSURE NORMAL COAL SUPPLIES - PTI
A captive power producers’ association has urged the government for 100 per cent normalisation of coal supply to captive power producers whil ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As an outstanding year for the dry bulk freight market comes to a close, so does a thriving year for the SnP market which can only be compared to 2 ...
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- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Coal Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
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