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Wednesday, 03 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 November is here and soon the all time seasonal favorite “all I want or Christmas is you” by Mariah Carey will be played in radio stations around the world repeatedly. Now the shipping question is, “will the tanker segment get what it wants this Christmas”?
For gas, dry and container Christmas has arrived very early in 2021 with earnings reaching levels not seen for more than a decade putting an overdue smile on ship owners faces.
So has the time come eventually for the tankers as well? There have been a few false alarms this year. One in early 2021 and one just before the summer. The activity on the SnP was mainly for Aframax and VLCCs and was purely driven by speculation or otherwise put “counter-cyclical” investment behavior, while the actual freight market remained subdued. That resulted into tanker asset values increasing especially on the Aframax size. And shortly after that we saw the same ships sold less than a month ago to be again for sale in an asset play attempt to flip them for a short profit.
We think that now is the time to buy. Compared to the dry bulk and container markets where the upcycle is mainly driven by demand, tankers on the other hand are mainly oil and products supply depended. As product tanker earnings seem to be taking the lead in the tankers recovery and hopefully soon the crude tankers will follow with late Q4 being the inflection point for an upward market reversal. The oil products destocking cycle is expected to come to an end during Q4, when winter restocking demand for middle distillates products will be at its peak, and refineries are expected to accelerate their runs to cover the energy deficit. Refineries are set to benefit from the increase in diesel and jet fuel prices a trend that should unfold through Q1 2022. The market seems well positioned for rising heating oil/ diesel consumption in the Atlantic, as well as jet fuel, and thus East to West middle distillates trade is expected to pick up. Naphtha trade is also expected to pick up in the short term, as naphtha has become cheaper than propane as a feedstock in the petrochemical industry benefiting the West/Med to East naphtha trade. Gasoline exports from Europe to the U.S. are also expected to rise on open arbitrage North West Europe- USAC on the forward curve and low inventories in the US. Gasoline flows from East of Suez into West Africa are expected to decline by the end of the year, as Asia is seeking to keep supplies to serve domestic demand, which is likely to lead to an increase in demand for European gasoline supplies from West Africa and US East Coast simultaneously.
Based on what we see and anticipate as stated above the increase of product prices and the need to refill the inventories will be key to the extent of the market recovery over the next year.
This could be a good timing to buy product carriers. We are starting to see increased SnP activity mainly for 12-14 year old MRs and 10 to 5 year old LR2s. Strange mix but this is where the majority of buyers are concentrating. MR1s are not yet of interest and on the LR1s buyers are reacting mostly to units less than 10 years old but there are not a lot for sale, at least not yet. Values have remained stable over the past two months but we do not expect them to stay put. It’s a small window to invest now where the market is still in favor of the buyers.
By Timos Papadimitriou,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 14 December 21
COAL LOCK-IN IN SOUTHEAST ASIA PRESENTS A CHALLENGE FOR THE ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK'S COAL RETIREMENT PLAN - IEEFA
In August, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) announced an ambitious plan to buy high emissions coal-fired power plants in Southeast Asia and retire ...
Saturday, 11 December 21
BUNKER BUYERS LOSE UP TO $5/MT FOR NOT COVERING ENOUGH SUPPLIERS - INTEGR8 FUELS
With the Brent price recently touching the $80 mark and before the Omicron variant concerns pushed it lower, bunker prices reached levels not seen ...
Tuesday, 07 December 21
SUPERCYCLE DEMAND: ARE WE THERE YET? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Taking young children on a long journey is fraught with challenges, not least the inevitable question a few minutes after leaving: are we there yet ...
Tuesday, 07 December 21
COAL WOULD REMAIN ENERGY LEADER FOR AT LEAST 15 YEARS - LIVEMINT
Coal India Ltd (CIL) has been in the eye of the storm after fuel stocks at coal-fuelled power plants depleted in October. Fuel stocks since are bei ...
Tuesday, 07 December 21
GLOBAL SHIPPING OUTLOOK TURNS STABLE FROM POSITIVE ON THE BACK OF PEAKING EARNINGS DURING 2021 - MOODY'S
The outlook for the global shipping industry is changed to stable from positive for the next 12 to 18 months due to demand slightly outstripping su ...
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
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