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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 23 September 21
RECORD-HIGH GAS PRICES AFFECT MANY EUROPEAN CORPORATE SECTORS - FITCH RATINGS
Record-high natural gas prices are putting pressure on supply chains of many European corporate sectors, including non-integrated energy suppliers, ...
Tuesday, 21 September 21
CHINESE COAL IMPORTS FROM AUSTRALIA DROP 98.6% AS RESTRICTIONS BITE - BIMCO
In the first seven months of the year Chinese coal imports from Australia have totalled just 780,000 tonnes as Chinese restrictions on Australian c ...
Tuesday, 21 September 21
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT RESUMES GROWTH IN AUGUST - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output rose 0.8 percent year on year to 340 million tonnes last month, official data showed.
The growth rate ...
Wednesday, 15 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Following the oil price sell off during most of August, partly triggered by oil demand fears amid the delta COVID variant, oil prices have resumed ...
Saturday, 11 September 21
CIL STEPS UP SUPPLY COAL TO POWER SECTOR; PER-DAY AVERAGE 20 PC HIGHER THAN LAST YEAR - PTI
State-owned CIL on Friday said it has stepped up the supply of coal to the power sector in the first eight days of the current month, with an avera ...
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- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- White Energy Company Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Planning Commission, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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