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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 23 September 21
RECORD-HIGH GAS PRICES AFFECT MANY EUROPEAN CORPORATE SECTORS - FITCH RATINGS
Record-high natural gas prices are putting pressure on supply chains of many European corporate sectors, including non-integrated energy suppliers, ...
Tuesday, 21 September 21
CHINESE COAL IMPORTS FROM AUSTRALIA DROP 98.6% AS RESTRICTIONS BITE - BIMCO
In the first seven months of the year Chinese coal imports from Australia have totalled just 780,000 tonnes as Chinese restrictions on Australian c ...
Tuesday, 21 September 21
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT RESUMES GROWTH IN AUGUST - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output rose 0.8 percent year on year to 340 million tonnes last month, official data showed.
The growth rate ...
Wednesday, 15 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Following the oil price sell off during most of August, partly triggered by oil demand fears amid the delta COVID variant, oil prices have resumed ...
Saturday, 11 September 21
CIL STEPS UP SUPPLY COAL TO POWER SECTOR; PER-DAY AVERAGE 20 PC HIGHER THAN LAST YEAR - PTI
State-owned CIL on Friday said it has stepped up the supply of coal to the power sector in the first eight days of the current month, with an avera ...
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- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
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