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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 23 September 21
RECORD-HIGH GAS PRICES AFFECT MANY EUROPEAN CORPORATE SECTORS - FITCH RATINGS
Record-high natural gas prices are putting pressure on supply chains of many European corporate sectors, including non-integrated energy suppliers, ...
Tuesday, 21 September 21
CHINESE COAL IMPORTS FROM AUSTRALIA DROP 98.6% AS RESTRICTIONS BITE - BIMCO
In the first seven months of the year Chinese coal imports from Australia have totalled just 780,000 tonnes as Chinese restrictions on Australian c ...
Tuesday, 21 September 21
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT RESUMES GROWTH IN AUGUST - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output rose 0.8 percent year on year to 340 million tonnes last month, official data showed.
The growth rate ...
Wednesday, 15 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Following the oil price sell off during most of August, partly triggered by oil demand fears amid the delta COVID variant, oil prices have resumed ...
Saturday, 11 September 21
CIL STEPS UP SUPPLY COAL TO POWER SECTOR; PER-DAY AVERAGE 20 PC HIGHER THAN LAST YEAR - PTI
State-owned CIL on Friday said it has stepped up the supply of coal to the power sector in the first eight days of the current month, with an avera ...
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- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
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