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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 06 October 21
EUROPEAN COAL FUTURES CLIMB TO 13-YEAR PEAK - REUTERS
European coal futures rose to a 13-year high and physical thermal coal prices were at record highs as rallying gas prices and strong Asian demand f ...
Tuesday, 05 October 21
CAPESIZE MARKET WAS IN A STEEP CLIMB FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
The Capesize market was in a steep climb for most of this week as it reached a pinnacle of $74,786 Wednesday before stalling, regather ...
Wednesday, 29 September 21
THE WRITING IS ON THE WALL: AUSTRALIA’S COAL ERA IS OVER - YAHOO!FINANCE
As the fringe of Australian politics strives to pump up the coal industry, facts show that coal production has started its long run decline.
&n ...
Wednesday, 29 September 21
SURGING COAL PRICES SPLIT ASIAN BUYERS INTO RICH AND POOR - REUTERS
As seaborne coal in Asia trades at, or near, record highs, there are early signs of demand destruction, especially among price-sensitive buyers suc ...
Wednesday, 29 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Tanker Asset values have surprised to the upside, despite the downward pressure on the freight market. Tanker rates have been hovering close to the ...
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
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