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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 06 October 21
EUROPEAN COAL FUTURES CLIMB TO 13-YEAR PEAK - REUTERS
European coal futures rose to a 13-year high and physical thermal coal prices were at record highs as rallying gas prices and strong Asian demand f ...
Tuesday, 05 October 21
CAPESIZE MARKET WAS IN A STEEP CLIMB FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
The Capesize market was in a steep climb for most of this week as it reached a pinnacle of $74,786 Wednesday before stalling, regather ...
Wednesday, 29 September 21
THE WRITING IS ON THE WALL: AUSTRALIA’S COAL ERA IS OVER - YAHOO!FINANCE
As the fringe of Australian politics strives to pump up the coal industry, facts show that coal production has started its long run decline.
&n ...
Wednesday, 29 September 21
SURGING COAL PRICES SPLIT ASIAN BUYERS INTO RICH AND POOR - REUTERS
As seaborne coal in Asia trades at, or near, record highs, there are early signs of demand destruction, especially among price-sensitive buyers suc ...
Wednesday, 29 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Tanker Asset values have surprised to the upside, despite the downward pressure on the freight market. Tanker rates have been hovering close to the ...
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
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