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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 11 September 21
RECORD CHINESE COAL FUTURES SIGNAL NEED TO BOOST OUTPUT - REUTERS
China’s coal prices have climbed to a record high, signaling the need for more production in the short term, even as the government tries to ...
Saturday, 11 September 21
IN 2022, EIA EXPECTS U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TO INCREASE BY 47 MMST TO 648 MMST
U.S. Coal production accordng to EIA's forecast, totals 601 million short tons (MMst) in 2021, 66 MMst more than in 2020, EIA's Short-Term ...
Wednesday, 08 September 21
FITCH RATINGS RAISES THERMAL COAL PRICE ASSUMPTIONS ON TIGHT SUPPLY
Fitch Ratings has increased all its Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg price assumptions and short- and medium-term Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg price assumptions ...
Wednesday, 08 September 21
COAL IS STILL KING; INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE ABOVE $150 FOR FIRST TIME IN HISTORY
COALspot.com: The Indonesian Coal Price Reference rose dramatically from US$ 127.05 in February 2011, to a peak of US$ 150.03 in September 2021, be ...
Wednesday, 08 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Last August was extremely hot in the dry bulk market with rates rising at levels that we have years to witness. The dry bulk index exceeded the 4,0 ...
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Planning Commission, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- MS Steel International - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
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