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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 28 September 21
THE MAIDEN EDITION OF DIVE TECHNOLOGY SUMMIT 2021 CONCLUDES SUCCESSFULLY
Press Release: DIVE TECHNOLOGY SUMMIT 2021, a one-day conference on the recent technological advancements in the Industrial Diving industry conclud ...
Monday, 27 September 21
CHINESE COAL FIRMS MEET TO ADDRESS WINTER SUPPLY CHALLENGES - CNBC
Major Chinese coal producers are trying to resolve supply shortages and curb price rises as the country’s winter consumption peak approaches, ...
Saturday, 25 September 21
HIGH STAKES FOR ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK’S AMBITIOUS COAL POWER RETIREMENT PLAN - IEEFA
Implementation challenges could block funding for other equally important high impact clean energy funding strategies
In the lead up ...
Thursday, 23 September 21
LONGER COAL CONTRACTS MAY REIN IN PRICES - ECNS
In China’s coal sector that has been marred recently by price surges, regional authorities and related enterprises should ensure the fuel con ...
Thursday, 23 September 21
BALTIC INDEX HITS 12-YEAR PEAK ON FIRMER VESSELS RATES - REUTERS
The Baltic Exchange’s main dry bulk sea freight index rose for a fourth straight session on Wednesday to a 12-year high, buoyed by higher rat ...
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- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- White Energy Company Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
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