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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 01 September 21
KOMIPO TO BUY 1.56 MILLION TONS OF 5600 NAR COAL OF AUSTRALIA OR SOUTH AFRICAN ORIGIN FOR 2022 - 2024
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO) has issued an international tender for total 1,560,000 MT of Bituminous Coal to be used a ...
Wednesday, 01 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the summer season is coming to an end, the dry bulk market continues to rally. The confidence that the outstanding freight market performance ha ...
Monday, 30 August 21
68% OF U.S. COAL FLEET RETIREMENTS SINCE 2011 WERE PLANTS FUELED BY BITUMINOUS COAL - EIA
In 2011, the United States had 317.6 gigawatts (GW) of coal-fired electric generation capacity. About 88.7 GW of that capacity was retired in the d ...
Friday, 27 August 21
ALL YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT COAL'S MASSIVE RALLY AND NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK - CNBCTV18
Australia’s thermal coal at Newcastle Port, the benchmark for the vast Asian market, has surged over 100 percent this year to trade above $16 ...
Friday, 27 August 21
THE ECONOMICS OF INDONESIA’S DIESEL POWER PLANT TO GAS CONVERSION PLAN ARE PROBLEMATIC - IEEFA
Deploying new small-scale LNG is an uphill battle for PGN
Indonesian gas is currently in a precarious position, where the government needs to ...
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- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Coal Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The University of Queensland
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
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