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Thursday, 17 June 21
FITCH RATINGS RAISES SHORT-TERM OIL AND GAS PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has increased its 2021 and 2022 oil price assumptions for the Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmarks due to stronger year-to-date prices, a deficit in the market caused by a recovery in demand, and constrained supply from OPEC+ countries and heightened US capital discipline.
We have also raised our 2021 and 2022 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) gas price assumptions. Increases in spot gas prices are being driven by low gas inventories in storage, strong demand in Asia, and recovering demand in Europe. All price assumptions from 2023 are unchanged.
Oil demand has been improving this year and is likely to continue to grow in 2H21 if vaccination rollouts are successful and pandemic-related restrictions are eased. New breakouts, particularly of new Covid-19 variants, remain the main risk for the sustained recovery in demand. Output policies of OPEC+ countries are key to managing oil supply. OPEC+’s planned production increases, originally agreed in April and confirmed in June, will help meet growing demand, but will be insufficient to balance the market in 2H21.
OPEC+ has spare capacity of about 7 million barrels per day (bpd), which should be sufficient to cover increasing demand in the short term. There is some uncertainty over how quickly production could ramp up relative to the pace of the recovery in demand, which may lead to price volatility. Furthermore, lifting of the sanctions against Iran could add about 1.5 million bpd of oil, although we believe that OPEC+ could mitigate the impact of additional output from Iran by slowing production increases.
Despite a rise recently, oil production in the US is still about 1 million bpd lower than in early 2020. US shale producers shifted capital allocation priorities towards debt reduction and measured shareholder returns over growth, which will moderate potential increases of US shale output, at least in the short term. The number of active US oil rigs is only half the pre-pandemic level, but is still about twice as many as in summer 2020.
TTF price rises are supported by strong demand in Asia and recovering demand in Europe (reinforced by cold weather and restocking after the winter), while supply increases have been insufficient to meet recovering demand, leading to low gas inventories in storage. Surging carbon prices in Europe have also contributed to gas price growth.
However, we believe the price rally in 1H21 is temporary. Once gas storage facilities are gradually filled during 2H21 and 2022 to their normal levels, demand should subside, leaving the market oversupplied.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Saturday, 17 July 21
COAL PRICES TRADE AT DECADE HIGH OF $140 PER TONNE, HERE ARE SOME FACTORS AT PLAY: CNBC-TV18
Coal prices are trading at $140 per tonne. In the last one week, coal has seen more than 8 percent gains; the last one month has seen 24 percent ju ...
Thursday, 15 July 21
U.S. FOSSIL FUEL CONSUMPTION FELL BY 9% IN 2020, THE LOWEST LEVEL IN NEARLY 30 YEARS - EIA
U.S. fossil fuel consumption fell by 9% in 2020, the lowest level in nearly 30 years
In 2020, total consumption of fossil fuels in t ...
Thursday, 15 July 21
IN 2020, U.S. COAL PRODUCTION FELL TO ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE 1965 - EIA
U.S. coal production totaled 535 million short tons (MMst) in 2020, a 24% decrease from the 706 MMst mined in 2019 and the lowest level of coal pro ...
Wednesday, 14 July 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In its latest Global Economic Prospects report, the world bank recorded the strongest post-recession global growth in 80 years, but emerging and de ...
Tuesday, 13 July 21
JAPAN STILL SEEKING TO EXPLOIT COAL POWER LOOPHOLES - IEEFA
JBIC wants to continue burdening developing nations with its expensive coal-fired power technology
Japan is continuing to push its expensive c ...
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- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
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