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Thursday, 17 June 21
FITCH RATINGS RAISES SHORT-TERM OIL AND GAS PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has increased its 2021 and 2022 oil price assumptions for the Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmarks due to stronger year-to-date prices, a deficit in the market caused by a recovery in demand, and constrained supply from OPEC+ countries and heightened US capital discipline.
We have also raised our 2021 and 2022 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) gas price assumptions. Increases in spot gas prices are being driven by low gas inventories in storage, strong demand in Asia, and recovering demand in Europe. All price assumptions from 2023 are unchanged.
Oil demand has been improving this year and is likely to continue to grow in 2H21 if vaccination rollouts are successful and pandemic-related restrictions are eased. New breakouts, particularly of new Covid-19 variants, remain the main risk for the sustained recovery in demand. Output policies of OPEC+ countries are key to managing oil supply. OPEC+’s planned production increases, originally agreed in April and confirmed in June, will help meet growing demand, but will be insufficient to balance the market in 2H21.
OPEC+ has spare capacity of about 7 million barrels per day (bpd), which should be sufficient to cover increasing demand in the short term. There is some uncertainty over how quickly production could ramp up relative to the pace of the recovery in demand, which may lead to price volatility. Furthermore, lifting of the sanctions against Iran could add about 1.5 million bpd of oil, although we believe that OPEC+ could mitigate the impact of additional output from Iran by slowing production increases.
Despite a rise recently, oil production in the US is still about 1 million bpd lower than in early 2020. US shale producers shifted capital allocation priorities towards debt reduction and measured shareholder returns over growth, which will moderate potential increases of US shale output, at least in the short term. The number of active US oil rigs is only half the pre-pandemic level, but is still about twice as many as in summer 2020.
TTF price rises are supported by strong demand in Asia and recovering demand in Europe (reinforced by cold weather and restocking after the winter), while supply increases have been insufficient to meet recovering demand, leading to low gas inventories in storage. Surging carbon prices in Europe have also contributed to gas price growth.
However, we believe the price rally in 1H21 is temporary. Once gas storage facilities are gradually filled during 2H21 and 2022 to their normal levels, demand should subside, leaving the market oversupplied.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Saturday, 17 July 21
COAL PRICES TRADE AT DECADE HIGH OF $140 PER TONNE, HERE ARE SOME FACTORS AT PLAY: CNBC-TV18
Coal prices are trading at $140 per tonne. In the last one week, coal has seen more than 8 percent gains; the last one month has seen 24 percent ju ...
Thursday, 15 July 21
U.S. FOSSIL FUEL CONSUMPTION FELL BY 9% IN 2020, THE LOWEST LEVEL IN NEARLY 30 YEARS - EIA
U.S. fossil fuel consumption fell by 9% in 2020, the lowest level in nearly 30 years
In 2020, total consumption of fossil fuels in t ...
Thursday, 15 July 21
IN 2020, U.S. COAL PRODUCTION FELL TO ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE 1965 - EIA
U.S. coal production totaled 535 million short tons (MMst) in 2020, a 24% decrease from the 706 MMst mined in 2019 and the lowest level of coal pro ...
Wednesday, 14 July 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In its latest Global Economic Prospects report, the world bank recorded the strongest post-recession global growth in 80 years, but emerging and de ...
Tuesday, 13 July 21
JAPAN STILL SEEKING TO EXPLOIT COAL POWER LOOPHOLES - IEEFA
JBIC wants to continue burdening developing nations with its expensive coal-fired power technology
Japan is continuing to push its expensive c ...
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
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